UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Rock vs. Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44aaecc8256da41a29e8153daaa71b7ac0cad26421f8dbaa5ddf7a517d6abd5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alievof Rock, Aliev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Aliev | 74c | 103,173$76,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,846.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Rock | 26c | 99,932$25,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,976.04 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Aliev | 74c | 30,000$22,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Rock | 26c | 25,000$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Rock | 7c | 11,320$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.42 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rock | 25c | 9,682$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.56 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Rock | 5c | 4,871$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.57 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Aliev | 73c | 4,303$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.62 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Aliev | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Aliev | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Aliev | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Rock | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Aliev | 74c | 3,711$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.91 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Rock | 26c | 3,647$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.3 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Rock | 27c | 3,131$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.35 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…f95bbacked Rock | 27c | 2,963$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Rock | 29c | 2,587$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.3 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Rock | 7c | 2,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Rock | 26c | 2,296$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Aliev | 73c | 2,156$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Rock | 30c | 2,013$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.76 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Aliev | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Rock | 26c | 1,979$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.54 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Rock | 26c | 1,952$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.52 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Rock | 26c | 1,890$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.4 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Aliev | 71c | 1,878$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Rock | 26c | 1,809$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.33 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Rock | 25c | 1,800$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…f1babacked Rock | 26c | 1,723$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…bf06backed Aliev | 71c | 1,649$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Rock | 29c | 1,380$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.18 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Aliev | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Rock | 25c | 1,250$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.5 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Rock | 26c | 1,200$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aliev | 73c | 1,129$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.79 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aliev | 75c | 1,088$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Rock | 28c | 1,074$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Aliev | 73c | 1,063$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.29 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Aliev | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.1 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Rock | 21c | 1,000$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Rock | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Rock | 27c | 960.81$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…cf16backed Aliev | 73c | 940.6$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Aliev | 74c | 859.1$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.1 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffc…ef35backed Aliev | 71c | 758.89$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Rock | 27c | 716.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…9d6dbacked Rock | 26c | 700.59$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Aliev | 75c | 670$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…cd16backed Aliev | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…bf62backed Aliev | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…276cbacked Aliev | 75c | 656.41$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3871…2a0cbacked Rock | 26c | 615.38$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Rock | 25c | 601.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked Aliev | 71c | 563.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Aliev | 72c | 553.57$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Aliev | 74c | 536.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rock | 26c | 518$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Aliev | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.37 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Aliev | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Rock | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Aliev | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Rock | 25c | 499.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Rock | 26c | 499.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Aliev | 75c | 429.54$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Aliev | 74c | 402.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…c72dbacked Rock | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Aliev | 74c | 374.44$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Rock | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Aliev | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Aliev | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…380dbacked Aliev | 73c | 306.34$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Aliev | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Aliev | 75c | 240.81$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Rock | 25c | 206.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Aliev | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Aliev | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Rock | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Rock | 25c | 199.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Rock | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Rock | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Rock | 26c | 174$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Aliev | 73c | 172.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Rock | 27c | 166.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Aliev | 70c | 166.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…f2c5backed Rock | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Rock | 25c | 142.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Aliev | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Aliev | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2766…4c94backed Aliev | 71c | 131.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rock | 10c | 123.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Aliev | 75c | 110.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Aliev | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Rock | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Rock | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012c…478ebacked Aliev | 75c | 94.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Aliev | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Aliev | 69c | 80.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed Aliev | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Rock | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Aliev | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Rock vs. Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Nurullo Aliev win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.