College Football · resolved market
Arizona State vs. Duke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x332d4c3d646e2f4972192e63f8ff48501b170d47448143053f350cc59cbff0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Arizona State, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,040,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,058,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,040,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…2fdabacked Arizona State | 39c | 266,047$102,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,654.05 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Duke | 61c | 196,264$119,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,383.62 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Duke | 62c | 107,053$66,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,287.54 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Duke | 61c | 99,840$60,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,937.69 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…8e3ebacked Arizona State | 39c | 72,000$28,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,080 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Arizona State | 39c | 54,515$21,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,484.26 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Arizona State | 41c | 50,000$20,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,499.99 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Duke | 59c | 42,222$24,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,310.84 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Duke | 61c | 35,345$21,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,706.42 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Arizona State | 36c | 27,648$9,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,954.39 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Arizona State | 41c | 17,590$7,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,211.96 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Duke | 64c | 15,267$9,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,438.24 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Duke | 59c | 15,254$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,254.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Arizona State | 39c | 12,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Arizona State | 39c | 12,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Arizona State | 33c | 10,304$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Duke | 61c | 10,015$6,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,905.85 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc153…6c8bbacked Arizona State | 39c | 10,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Duke | 47c | 8,952$4,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,730.84 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Arizona State | 42c | 8,333$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Duke | 54c | 8,171$4,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,718.96 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Arizona State | 38c | 7,000$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Arizona State | 48c | 6,208$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Duke | 62c | 5,900$3,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…edc9backed Arizona State | 44c | 5,823$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State | 34c | 5,245$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.51 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke | 61c | 5,057$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.5 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Arizona State | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Duke | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…e883backed Arizona State | 67c | 4,661$3,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,114.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Arizona State | 36c | 4,564$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arizona State | 37c | 4,384$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.67 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Arizona State | 60c | 4,354$2,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,604 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…57b3backed Arizona State | 38c | 4,012$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Arizona State | 35c | 4,000$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…3a91backed Arizona State | 39c | 4,000$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.46 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Arizona State | 20c | 3,906$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.05 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Duke | 60c | 3,895$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State | 40c | 3,651$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.23 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d38ebacked Duke | 51c | 3,025$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.77 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Arizona State | 39c | 3,023$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.97 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Arizona State | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Arizona State | 41c | 2,885$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.88 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Arizona State | 35c | 2,792$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.32 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Arizona State | 39c | 2,789$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Arizona State | 6c | 2,720$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.78 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…1e0bbacked Duke | 68c | 2,719$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Duke | 63c | 2,700$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.23 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…b7b1backed Arizona State | 40c | 2,484$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…7034backed Arizona State | 41c | 2,463$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…1345backed Duke | 59c | 2,450$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke | 62c | 2,430$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.51 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Arizona State | 38c | 2,411$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.57 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Duke | 54c | 2,257$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.31 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Duke | 69c | 2,183$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.95 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Arizona State | 47c | 2,174$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Duke | 76c | 2,156$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.9 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arizona State | 36c | 2,071$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Duke | 65c | 2,010$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Duke | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Duke | 50c | 1,992$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.9 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…8d65backed Arizona State | 56c | 1,949$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Arizona State | 40c | 1,874$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…2957backed Duke | 37c | 1,700$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Duke | 62c | 1,676$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.09 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…033abacked Arizona State | 1c | 1,663$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Duke | 62c | 1,618$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.74 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…6bfcbacked Arizona State | 33c | 1,522$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Arizona State | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Duke | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed Arizona State | 57c | 1,499$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Arizona State | 57c | 1,470$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6772…1fa4backed Duke | 23c | 1,392$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +337.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Arizona State | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Arizona State | 41c | 1,271$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.13 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Duke | 65c | 1,258$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.3 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Arizona State | 42c | 1,250$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Duke | 59c | 1,195$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Arizona State | 43c | 1,138$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Arizona State | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Duke | 54c | 1,111$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.32 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ff…d0d0backed Arizona State | 45c | 1,109$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Arizona State | 2c | 1,081$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Arizona State | 4c | 1,055$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Duke | 59c | 1,014$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.62 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Arizona State | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Duke | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…5c53backed Duke | 72c | 998$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.54 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Duke | 59c | 989.5$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…29ebbacked Arizona State | 42c | 941.07$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arizona State | 32c | 917.36$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…5d3fbacked Arizona State | 30c | 909.94$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.73 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Arizona State | 40c | 889.09$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.78 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Duke | 41c | 870.64$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.95 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Duke | 57c | 870.59$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Arizona State | 51c | 869.29$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duke | 49c | 869.13$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.47 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Duke | 71c | 845.07$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Duke | 64c | 843$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Duke | 58c | 839.58$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.57 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona State vs. Dukethis page
- Arizona State vs. Duke: 1H MoneylineDuke won
- Arizona State vs. Duke: O/U 47.5Over won
- Arizona State vs. Duke: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Duke (-3.5)Arizona State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.