TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Arizona State vs. Duke

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dukeof Arizona State, Duke
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,040,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,058,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,040,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5350…2fdabacked Arizona State39c266,047$102,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,654.053345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Duke61c196,264$119,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,383.622245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Duke62c107,053$66,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,287.5421055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Duke61c99,840$60,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,937.694163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x654d…8e3ebacked Arizona State39c72,000$28,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,080714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Arizona State39c54,515$21,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,484.2693548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Arizona State41c50,000$20,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,499.996046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Duke59c42,222$24,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,310.843857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Duke61c35,345$21,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,706.4211849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Arizona State36c27,648$9,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,954.3910848.1%52 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Arizona State41c17,590$7,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,211.9632745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Duke64c15,267$9,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,438.2458850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Duke59c15,254$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,254.242142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Arizona State39c12,000$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6801250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Arizona State39c12,000$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6803158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Arizona State33c10,304$3,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.0690%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Duke61c10,015$6,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,905.854551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Arizona State39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Duke47c8,952$4,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,730.8413933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Arizona State42c8,333$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5003951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Duke54c8,171$4,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,718.9686243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Arizona State38c7,000$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.992441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Arizona State48c6,208$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Duke62c5,900$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,241.991861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3e…edc9backed Arizona State44c5,823$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona State34c5,245$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.5119842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Duke61c5,057$3,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.52,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Arizona State40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003060%18 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Duke62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90029055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a65…e883backed Arizona State67c4,661$3,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,114.31771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Arizona State36c4,564$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.531520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Arizona State37c4,384$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.6764841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Arizona State60c4,354$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b9c…57b3backed Arizona State38c4,012$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.821172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+46.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Arizona State35c4,000$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.851080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+56.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7546…3a91backed Arizona State39c4,000$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.463336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Arizona State20c3,906$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.059124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Duke60c3,895$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.131330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State40c3,651$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.2352449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Duke51c3,025$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.771883.3%15 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+57.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Arizona State39c3,023$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.9721644.9%97 W · 119 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Arizona State39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1704654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Arizona State41c2,885$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.8838450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Arizona State35c2,792$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.325345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Arizona State39c2,789$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08010848.1%52 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Arizona State6c2,720$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.788629.1%25 W · 61 L+15.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+361.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Duke68c2,719$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.83955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Duke63c2,700$1,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.239750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b2…b7b1backed Arizona State40c2,484$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.451844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc140…7034backed Arizona State41c2,463$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7112…1345backed Duke59c2,450$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Duke62c2,430$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.5140244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Arizona State38c2,411$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.578043.8%35 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Duke54c2,257$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.3123751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Duke69c2,183$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.951968.4%13 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Arizona State47c2,174$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Duke76c2,156$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.921538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arizona State36c2,071$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7507136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Duke65c2,010$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.41957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Duke66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68015751%80 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Duke50c1,992$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.955350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb19…8d65backed Arizona State56c1,949$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6909…36b5backed Arizona State40c1,874$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.171060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0266…2957backed Duke37c1,700$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0652060%12 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Duke62c1,676$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.0948546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ed1…033abacked Arizona State1c1,663$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf642…0c19backed Duke62c1,618$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.745147.1%24 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb83a…6bfcbacked Arizona State33c1,522$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4961250%6 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+57.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Arizona State39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5855028%14 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Duke43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8554744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca47…3ef4backed Arizona State57c1,499$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-56.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Arizona State57c1,470$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6772…1fa4backed Duke23c1,392$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+337.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Arizona State36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Arizona State41c1,271$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.1354243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Duke65c1,258$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.314743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Arizona State42c1,250$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Duke59c1,195$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Arizona State43c1,138$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4889053.3%48 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Arizona State1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.112370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Duke54c1,111$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.322259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Arizona State45c1,109$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Arizona State2c1,081$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36490%0 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Arizona State4c1,055$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+156.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Duke59c1,014$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.625149%25 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Arizona State44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4403658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Duke47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5308100%8 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+98%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4bd8…5c53backed Duke72c998$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.541080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Duke59c989.5$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40650358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…29ebbacked Arizona State42c941.07$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.251060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Arizona State32c917.36$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0920553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb00…5d3fbacked Arizona State30c909.94$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.731816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Arizona State40c889.09$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.784833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Duke41c870.64$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.9515252.6%80 W · 72 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Duke57c870.59$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.512166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked Arizona State51c869.29$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Duke49c869.13$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.4726940.5%109 W · 160 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Duke71c845.07$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.07966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Duke64c843$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Duke58c839.58$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5710346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.