College Football · resolved market
O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb886cede3fa4a4d3123ca07f019373a20742d134ebeb650006e281f5453112fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 51c | 86,864$44,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,406.48 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Under | 50c | 45,496$22,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,718.24 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +7.6wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 51c | 42,060$21,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,450.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 18,395$8,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,459.08 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 11,108$5,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,078.04 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 10,998$5,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,630.45 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 8,284$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,240.23 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 51c | 5,462$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Under | 51c | 2,056$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 47c | 1,125$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 1,104$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.75 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 745$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Under | 45c | 125.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 55c | 107$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 96.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 45c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 52c | 69.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…506fbacked Under | 46c | 51.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2c52backed Over | 49c | 47.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…f4dcbacked Under | 51c | 40.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 37.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Under | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 49.5this page
- Arizona State vs. DukeDuke won
- Arizona State vs. Duke: 1H MoneylineDuke won
- Arizona State vs. Duke: O/U 47.5Over won
- Arizona State vs. Duke: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Duke (-3.5)Arizona State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.