Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan Wolverines vs. San Diego State Aztecs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x380a86b83dce8d6db89f784f853910a0682232161fd9d00036944afc3ad01453
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, San Diego State Aztecs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Michigan Wolverines | 72c | 9,889$7,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.17 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed San Diego State Aztecs | 28c | 4,943$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…7b26backed San Diego State Aztecs | 31c | 4,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed San Diego State Aztecs | 29c | 4,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.98 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 69c | 3,747$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.55 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego State Aztecs | 1c | 2,319$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed San Diego State Aztecs | 3c | 465.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Michigan Wolverines | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed San Diego State Aztecs | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed San Diego State Aztecs | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Michigan Wolverines | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 30c | 264$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 22c | 263$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michigan Wolverines | 71c | 220$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 27c | 194.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked San Diego State Aztecs | 31c | 190.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 29c | 147.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9492…1f25backed Michigan Wolverines | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed San Diego State Aztecs | 12c | 125.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 30c | 124.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed San Diego State Aztecs | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…f2c5backed Michigan Wolverines | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed San Diego State Aztecs | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Michigan Wolverines | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7d…c6fbbacked Michigan Wolverines | 72c | 34.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a99…29c8backed Michigan Wolverines | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Michigan Wolverines | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.