UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Loder (Middleweight, Prelims)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbe10b7ef06ac09a18b74a3f12fc92885e7ca461f551caf8daad159a0ec75515

Rebuilt 28 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Naurdievof Naurdiev, Loder
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $169,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,567 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Loder	44c	34,876$15,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,404.79	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x469f…276cbacked Loder	1c	30,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	41cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Naurdiev	56c	20,000$11,196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,804.5	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1c3…0a31backed Loder	0c	19,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Naurdiev	58c	13,213$7,661 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,551.42	68	50%34 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Naurdiev	55c	10,899$6,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,860	288	49.7%143 W · 145 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Loder	42c	10,199$4,293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,292.54	117	46.2%54 W · 63 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Naurdiev	54c	9,503$5,132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,371.3	177	52%92 W · 85 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Loder	46c	6,733$3,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,091.28	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Loder	47c	6,385$3,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000.95	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Naurdiev	53c	5,484$2,921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,563.56	156	41%64 W · 92 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Loder	44c	5,342$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350.48	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Loder	45c	3,000$1,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,339.99	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Naurdiev	55c	2,464$1,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111.62	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Naurdiev	55c	2,338$1,286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,052.19	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Loder	46c	2,174$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Loder	45c	1,863$838 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$838.39	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Naurdiev	53c	1,701$899 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$802.34	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Loder	45c	1,700$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765	111	40.5%45 W · 66 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Naurdiev	55c	1,422$782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$639.68	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+73.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Loder	46c	1,178$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542	121	34.7%42 W · 79 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Loder	46c	1,088$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Naurdiev	55c	1,000$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Loder	45c	999.99$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	210	44.8%94 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Naurdiev	56c	999.98$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.99	87	51.7%45 W · 42 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Loder	45c	935.83$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.12	162	47.5%77 W · 85 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Naurdiev	54c	925.93$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.93	35	71.4%25 W · 10 L	+6.3wins	+0.18per pick	54cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Naurdiev	56c	833.77$464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.69	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Loder	44c	793.18$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.46	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20cb…719bbacked Loder	46c	760.87$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked Naurdiev	53c	660.38$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.38	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.21per pick	37cpaid	+67%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Loder	45c	600$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Naurdiev	56c	600$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264	905	53.6%485 W · 420 L	+46.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Naurdiev	55c	550$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.5	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Naurdiev	57c	526.32$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.32	80	58.8%47 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Naurdiev	54c	500$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Loder	42c	499.99$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…c72dbacked Loder	45c	499.98$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.99	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10f8…bed5backed Loder	44c	423.59$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Loder	44c	400$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+7.1wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Naurdiev	55c	400$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	238	50.4%120 W · 118 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Naurdiev	56c	389.57$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.41	96	38.5%37 W · 59 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Loder	48c	312.5$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Loder	46c	310.87$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	134	37.3%50 W · 84 L	-10.2wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Loder	43c	300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	75	41.3%31 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3871…2a0cbacked Naurdiev	55c	283.64$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.64	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.2wins	+0.28per pick	35cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Naurdiev	55c	272.73$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.73	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd8…39b1backed Naurdiev	57c	261.24$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.24	106	53.8%57 W · 49 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Naurdiev	55c	250$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.5	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+5.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Loder	44c	249.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73a6…8924backed Loder	43c	232.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.7wins	+0.30per pick	58cpaid	+54.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Loder	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf17a…8abebacked Naurdiev	56c	211.89$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.23	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Loder	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Loder	45c	196.3$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.74	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Loder	47c	191.48$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d31…cea8backed Naurdiev	55c	190.91$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.91	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Naurdiev	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Naurdiev	55c	183.64$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.64	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Naurdiev	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x205c…f554backed Naurdiev	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+58.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Naurdiev	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Naurdiev	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	108	43.5%47 W · 61 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Naurdiev	55c	181.81$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.81	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Loder	45c	166.67$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	61cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x929c…8cb6backed Naurdiev	53c	149.99$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.49	111	52.3%58 W · 53 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3add…ade5backed Naurdiev	55c	146.33$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.85	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.2wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Loder	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb937…f2c5backed Loder	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Loder	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+69.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked Naurdiev	55c	100.73$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.33	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	+4.3wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Naurdiev	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	30	73.3%22 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Loder	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Naurdiev	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.22per pick	49cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed Naurdiev	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	65cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…3ef7backed Naurdiev	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Loder	43c	94.09$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.93	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.2wins	-0.29per pick	38cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee44…0082backed Naurdiev	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Loder	46c	82.61$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	166	55.4%92 W · 74 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Loder	46c	76.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x546f…c888backed Naurdiev	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Loder	43c	72.09$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Loder	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…387abacked Loder	46c	63.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.02	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-3.5wins	-0.35per pick	45cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Loder	45c	60.91$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.41	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e5…dc86backed Naurdiev	54c	57.22$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.32	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf693…202fbacked Loder	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa1…8eb9backed Naurdiev	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9083…622ebacked Loder	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.25per pick	62cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Loder	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	50%26 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Naurdiev	55c	53.89$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.25	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	+10.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0abd…869abacked Loder	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Naurdiev	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	167	36.5%61 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b9f…d2b9backed Naurdiev	56c	46.43$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.43	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…baa4backed Loder	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	39cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c45…47f1backed Naurdiev	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	190	65.3%124 W · 66 L	+9.7wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df4…9e8fbacked Loder	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7108…a418backed Loder	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e14…44cfbacked Loder	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8320…facdbacked Naurdiev	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Loder (Middleweight, Prelims)this page
Fight to Go the Distance?No won
O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
Will Ismail Naurdiev win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Will Ryan Loder win by KO or TKO?No won
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Will the fight be won by submission?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Loder (Middleweight, Prelims)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event