NBA · resolved market
Spread: Clippers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3534a3e0cb3fe57fe3ab7b001bbacd218e2ef06b08e9bba63c261a153677503c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Clippers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Mavericks | 43c | 6,720$2,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,836.35 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Clippers | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clippers | 56c | 4,685$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.09 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 46c | 3,948$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Mavericks | 55c | 3,112$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.33 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 45c | 2,895$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Clippers | 53c | 2,832$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2052backed Clippers | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…982dbacked Mavericks | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…309dbacked Mavericks | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…d7d5backed Clippers | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…2b11backed Clippers | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…5ecebacked Mavericks | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 50c | 1,178$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Clippers | 57c | 880.11$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Clippers | 58c | 595$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.1 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Mavericks | 50c | 540$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Mavericks | 49c | 512.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.24 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 47c | 478.89$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.81 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Mavericks | 50c | 476.04$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.02 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed Mavericks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Clippers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Mavericks | 52c | 193.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Clippers | 56c | 188$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Clippers | 53c | 155.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Clippers | 55c | 148.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Mavericks | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mavericks | 48c | 120.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Mavericks | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…f2c5backed Mavericks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Mavericks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Mavericks | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Clippers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Clippers | 57c | 86.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Clippers | 49c | 81.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 50c | 78.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Mavericks | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 44c | 37.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Mavericks | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Mavericks | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clippers (-7.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. ClippersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Clippers (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Clippers (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.