UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd21b2c7157cfb17a3068b0ef7f5e87b06d3ad82085c6c70f77a94ef72bdefa

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mitch Raposoof Allan Nascimento, Mitch Raposo
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,039,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,197,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,039,175 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Allan Nascimento	60c	718,587$430,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430,693.44	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Mitch Raposo	40c	91,997$37,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54,887.39	154	44.2%68 W · 86 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Mitch Raposo	40c	74,936$29,974 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44,961.35	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Mitch Raposo	40c	69,117$27,647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41,470.1	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Mitch Raposo	40c	49,800$19,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29,879.99	145	58.6%85 W · 60 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Mitch Raposo	40c	46,665$18,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,999	100	35%35 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed Mitch Raposo	40c	40,191$16,077 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,114.83	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	34cpaid	+61.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Mitch Raposo	40c	38,377$15,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,906.83	75	34.7%26 W · 49 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92ee…90e6backed Mitch Raposo	40c	30,357$12,143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,214.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	+25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Mitch Raposo	40c	29,034$11,613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,420.22	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	29,000$11,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,400	115	54.8%63 W · 52 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Mitch Raposo	40c	26,232$10,493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,739.2	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	25,000$10,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,975	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Mitch Raposo	40c	20,490$8,248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,242.1	61	32.8%20 W · 41 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed Mitch Raposo	40c	16,726$6,690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,035.6	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Mitch Raposo	40c	15,200$6,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,120	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Mitch Raposo	41c	13,973$5,662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,310.81	291	33.7%98 W · 193 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed Mitch Raposo	40c	12,410$4,981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,429	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	11,390$4,556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,834	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d47…d0a2backed Mitch Raposo	40c	11,175$4,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,705	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Mitch Raposo	39c	10,768$4,199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,568.39	191	54.5%104 W · 87 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed Mitch Raposo	40c	10,200$4,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,120	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	9,760$3,905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,855.41	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c0…1bedbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	8,500$3,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,100	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+32%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Allan Nascimento	14c	7,002$977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.59	331	32%106 W · 225 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Allan Nascimento	13c	6,538$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.28	159	39.6%63 W · 96 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Mitch Raposo	41c	6,096$2,499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,596.62	145	51%74 W · 71 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed Mitch Raposo	41c	5,930$2,431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,498.7	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Mitch Raposo	40c	5,848$2,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,508.58	288	49.7%143 W · 145 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa160…442bbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	5,355$2,145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,210.45	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe988…cf23backed Mitch Raposo	41c	5,185$2,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,058.89	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Allan Nascimento	61c	4,943$3,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,006.59	138	36.2%50 W · 88 L	-7.8wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Allan Nascimento	10c	4,468$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.43	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Mitch Raposo	41c	4,371$1,792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,578.71	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-10.9wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Allan Nascimento	60c	4,300$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,600	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	3,503$1,401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,101.5	420	54%227 W · 193 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Allan Nascimento	60c	3,500$2,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,114.99	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…a1d3backed Mitch Raposo	41c	3,355$1,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,979.44	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Allan Nascimento	24c	3,093$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.87	180	32.8%59 W · 121 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Mitch Raposo	40c	3,046$1,218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,827.69	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Mitch Raposo	39c	3,018$1,187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,830.6	226	61.9%140 W · 86 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…b6abbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	2,720$1,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,632	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	36cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Allan Nascimento	29c	2,698$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.48	225	48%108 W · 117 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed Allan Nascimento	49c	2,669$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Mitch Raposo	40c	2,628$1,051 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,576.92	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Mitch Raposo	40c	2,567$1,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,540.2	71	28.2%20 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Allan Nascimento	21c	2,555$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.48	539	56.6%305 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Allan Nascimento	60c	2,500$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	155	52.3%81 W · 74 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Mitch Raposo	39c	2,215$860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,355.02	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Allan Nascimento	60c	2,114$1,268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,268.39	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	63cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Allan Nascimento	18c	2,083$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	84	34.5%29 W · 55 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Allan Nascimento	36c	2,000$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$716.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ef…f31ebacked Allan Nascimento	37c	1,787$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.06	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.24per pick	46cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Mitch Raposo	41c	1,700$697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,003	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c6b…f7dabacked Allan Nascimento	61c	1,631$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Mitch Raposo	53c	1,548$813 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$734.99	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3155…268ebacked Mitch Raposo	39c	1,547$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$946.2	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	+7.3wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Allan Nascimento	60c	1,500$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	252	51.2%129 W · 123 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Mitch Raposo	40c	1,500$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Allan Nascimento	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Mitch Raposo	40c	1,500$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.99	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28fb…5e15backed Mitch Raposo	40c	1,388$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$832.5	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.27per pick	53cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Allan Nascimento	61c	1,312$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.32	63	54%34 W · 29 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Mitch Raposo	40c	1,250$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	137	35.8%49 W · 88 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Mitch Raposo	40c	1,250$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	53	60.4%32 W · 21 L	+6.8wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8328…e5ebbacked Mitch Raposo	41c	1,171$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690.73	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Mitch Raposo	60c	1,166$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.45	161	56.5%91 W · 70 L	+10.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+67.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Allan Nascimento	10c	1,161$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.32	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-80%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Mitch Raposo	40c	1,048$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$628.5	83	60.2%50 W · 33 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Allan Nascimento	14c	1,027$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.35	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Mitch Raposo	38c	1,025$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$635.44	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Allan Nascimento	60c	1,000$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Mitch Raposo	40c	1,000$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	84	61.9%52 W · 32 L	+9.2wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Allan Nascimento	31c	947$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.96	124	51.6%64 W · 60 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Allan Nascimento	61c	900$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.5	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Mitch Raposo	40c	857.51$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.51	84	58.3%49 W · 35 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Allan Nascimento	9c	826$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.78	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Allan Nascimento	61c	805.72$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.49	153	48.4%74 W · 79 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mitch Raposo	68c	790.9$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.25	159	33.3%53 W · 106 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Allan Nascimento	42c	769.91$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.25	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Allan Nascimento	15c	760.59$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.85	107	46.7%50 W · 57 L	+7.1wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Allan Nascimento	28c	760.13$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.03	224	38.4%86 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Mitch Raposo	41c	757.66$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$447.02	97	46.4%45 W · 52 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed Mitch Raposo	42c	714.29$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.29	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Allan Nascimento	27c	704.29$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.67	267	36%96 W · 171 L	-16.6wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x348c…c8efbacked Mitch Raposo	41c	643.9$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.9	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc400…9cc4backed Allan Nascimento	65c	635.99$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Allan Nascimento	15c	633.33$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Mitch Raposo	41c	631.8$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.62	72	63.9%46 W · 26 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Allan Nascimento	62c	590$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.8	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Mitch Raposo	70c	568.3$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.21	383	53.3%204 W · 179 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Allan Nascimento	28c	550.7$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Mitch Raposo	40c	532.01$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.21	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa24…a75cbacked Allan Nascimento	61c	491.8$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dad…1d41backed Allan Nascimento	61c	491.8$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-4.5wins	-0.27per pick	56cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mitch Raposo	75c	487.26$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.15	358	48.3%173 W · 185 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Mitch Raposo	41c	463.41$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.41	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed Mitch Raposo	40c	444$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Mitch Raposo	40c	375.95$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.57	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Allan Nascimento	46c	373.9$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)this page
Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Will the fight be won by submission?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event