UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a5ae1256e2dcbe5661c5e287f21bbb1963425853bb5eb04cfd386dd5cdfc580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9e6…025bbacked Under | 50c | 22,611$11,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,380.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 50c | 7,746$3,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 55c | 2,526$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.19 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Under | 50c | 1,929$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.57 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Under | 46c | 1,095$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.45 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 44c | 1,024$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.57 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 56c | 750$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…9c9abacked Under | 76c | 734$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 55c | 596.8$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.24 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Under | 44c | 405$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.1 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 42c | 85.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 58c | 85.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Under | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)Vallejos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.