Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb61feb508f17d417b5e376c9f453cd91e2def59d19983cb9137b17d80a8fd08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 8,851$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 1c | 3,497$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0465…3065backed Yes | 3c | 3,474$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2c39backed Yes | 4c | 2,732$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,457$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…ad2dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,436$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 3c | 2,219$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,331$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Yes | 3c | 1,315$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,246$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 993.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 2c | 982.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 2c | 862.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…0134backed Yes | 8c | 792.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf77…c340backed Yes | 4c | 733.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d6…9fa8backed Yes | 2c | 720.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked Yes | 13c | 677.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 7c | 661.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…9743backed Yes | 3c | 599.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…e3ffbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…ba74backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…5fe8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 2c | 479.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…044cbacked Yes | 3c | 436.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked Yes | 8c | 230.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e9…b090backed Yes | 10c | 206.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…2712backed Yes | 8c | 190.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed Yes | 17c | 98.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…128ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.