Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California Golden Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2796a62e68a19b0c66761bb8b3dc58e6c84aaf63f9e8c123e79128cd5b854f28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas State Wildcatsof California Golden Bears, Kansas State Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed California Golden Bears | 0c | 17,092$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed California Golden Bears | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California Golden Bears | 4c | 2,962$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 2,145$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.24 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 2,128$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.59 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…46cebacked California Golden Bears | 4c | 1,540$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked California Golden Bears | 27c | 1,315$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.71 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked California Golden Bears | 28c | 1,200$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.6 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 1,114$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.11 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 717.97$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.76 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…1f3cbacked California Golden Bears | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 550$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked California Golden Bears | 28c | 518.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 278.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 250.95$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed California Golden Bears | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked California Golden Bears | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed California Golden Bears | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…46c4backed Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 82.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 72.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 70.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed California Golden Bears | 30c | 68.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed California Golden Bears | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed California Golden Bears | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…8985backed Kansas State Wildcats | 71c | 41.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…487dbacked Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 29.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Kansas State Wildcats | 72c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.