Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northwestern State Demons vs. California Golden Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaea7e9420688d2980fa2dbad76f8634ec5acb333db08271a73132579d1ba512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Golden Bearsof Northwestern State Demons, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24db…1332backed Northwestern State Demons | 16c | 1,187$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.43 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 1,183$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 1,092$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Northwestern State Demons | 9c | 947.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…1f3cbacked Northwestern State Demons | 19c | 728.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed California Golden Bears | 71c | 719.5$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Northwestern State Demons | 13c | 553.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 136 | 3.7%5 W · 131 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Northwestern State Demons | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed California Golden Bears | 80c | 411.68$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ea…e3e3backed Northwestern State Demons | 5c | 361$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…5dd3backed Northwestern State Demons | 13c | 330.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Northwestern State Demons | 18c | 230.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 18cpaid | +108%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed California Golden Bears | 78c | 167.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…d7cabacked Northwestern State Demons | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Northwestern State Demons | 21c | 115.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Northwestern State Demons | 30c | 42.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Northwestern State Demons | 25c | 41.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northwestern State Demons vs. California Golden Bearsthis page
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-20.5)Northwestern State Demons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.