Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46a79789f6aea363f2c44da26b0318e2e3db036975c5b6140f9463d6a6d3d3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe132…7a38backed No | 1c | 3,850$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 56c | 3,736$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.42 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 74c | 3,090$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.97 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…60cabacked No | 0c | 2,778$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,032$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 80c | 1,610$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.37 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 72c | 1,310$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 27c | 1,302$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,160$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.81 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,157$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,100$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…dc1ebacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 18c | 962.82$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.33 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 16c | 950.93$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 932.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 2c | 873.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 872.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 35c | 747.18$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.18 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed No | 2c | 742.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…a042backed Yes | 25c | 689.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 2c | 661.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 3c | 601.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 2c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 23c | 593$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…f42abacked No | 34c | 584.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 524.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 70c | 511.64$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.69 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 3c | 510$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 3c | 501.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 483.24$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 50c | 380.02$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 21c | 352$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 79c | 352$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 78c | 328$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe4…fba2backed No | 4c | 324.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 20c | 324.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 76c | 309.42$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 22c | 258$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 69c | 247$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 38c | 240$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 5c | 217.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 49c | 212.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4a14backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 193.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 26c | 184.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 43c | 181$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 43c | 175$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 28c | 153.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 7c | 147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 15c | 144.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 17c | 140.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 62c | 134$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…89f4backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 57c | 95.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 37c | 92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 25c | 78.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 37c | 70.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 41.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…ad9bbacked Yes | 50c | 39.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652a…2b93backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…4e09backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Zootopia 2' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.