Movies · resolved market
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee896eddae9c544c4d9ca8728e5a7a323a022bf803a8561a13224ff2c1e2b27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,211$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 1c | 6,011$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +335.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 18c | 5,770$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.11 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 24c | 1,523$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,399$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 17c | 728.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 515.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 40c | 500$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.76 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 20c | 498.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…abbabacked Yes | 20c | 331.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 21c | 330.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 304.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 235.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 185.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 67c | 162$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 161.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 31c | 146$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 29c | 136.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 123.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 67c | 114$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 13c | 94.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 33c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 28c | 70.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…6bfdbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 29c | 38.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed No | 51c | 24.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 24.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?this page
- Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
- Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Yes won
- Will 'Zootopia 2' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.