AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8af5f2c7910598c1e6936d2e4c745e41bda049930a33a037e2a9cc6bb7efa230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdd…71e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,731$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…dbb5backed Yes | 1c | 1,674$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 12c | 1,401$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,211$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 8c | 1,135$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 40c | 666.35$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.06 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 24c | 620$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 7c | 375.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 357.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 27c | 348.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…b99cbacked Yes | 40c | 339.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 322.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 6c | 253.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 28c | 236.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…8af0backed No | 69c | 215.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 8c | 214.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 160.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…9546backed No | 78c | 127.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…c708backed Yes | 14c | 118.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 21c | 112.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 108.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 22c | 96.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…2bf6backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 12c | 94.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 38c | 92.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 76c | 91.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 59.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 44c | 49.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 44.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2c…5d8ebacked Yes | 26c | 39.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 75c | 37.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 53c | 33.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 67c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Moonshot have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.