AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58bab067680401c094c6f4f7aebaf12de7e49cb9ffa7d286ec2e7ec3fc7c953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,999$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…51b8backed Yes | 2c | 4,650$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 2,467$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.39 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,439$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 933.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…dbcabacked Yes | 11c | 875.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 847.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 11c | 649.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 643.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 7c | 505.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 437.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 8c | 407.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…ce32backed Yes | 4c | 384.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 10c | 384$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 328.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 293.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 265.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 229.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 213.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…3308backed Yes | 29c | 170.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 151.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 9c | 143.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 10c | 135.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…ad32backed Yes | 17c | 116.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 29c | 98.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 72c | 81.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 51.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…66d0backed Yes | 35c | 51.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Moonshot have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.