Earnings · resolved market
Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95c13a7302b9be37987dd6f6dcb0c6ae7662bffa1294390e53a021ad0ea2a817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 53c | 4,407$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.88 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 41c | 1,373$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.06 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 42c | 918.79$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.71 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…9749backed Yes | 75c | 741.78$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 49c | 722.81$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.33 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 52c | 701.36$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.77 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked Yes | 49c | 544.94$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 46c | 514.48$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…e979backed Yes | 43c | 506.41$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 504.47$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.19 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Yes | 62c | 480.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.91 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 50c | 437.78$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 37c | 258.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 256.58$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 37c | 253.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 33c | 247.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 37c | 244.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 199.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…4e5cbacked Yes | 38c | 199.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 59c | 197.4$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 33c | 191.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…721bbacked Yes | 39c | 170$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa10a…28b1backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…f456backed Yes | 60c | 149.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 29c | 140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 58c | 120.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…834bbacked Yes | 40c | 117$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 50c | 110.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 50c | 107.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…9bfdbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 55c | 99.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 64c | 84.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…b0ccbacked Yes | 59c | 84.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…d98fbacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…72f5backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 40c | 59.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 44c | 59.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…a8bbbacked No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 38c | 52.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…33bdbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…e451backed Yes | 46c | 43.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 33c | 42.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5236backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 28c | 39.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…cb66backed No | 30c | 35.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c8…b9f7backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…ddeebacked Yes | 73c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd495…0791backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 68c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…8dc7backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 60c | 26.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 58c | 26.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 56c | 25.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 69c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 70c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed Yes | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.