TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Penguinsof Penguins, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$698,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$706,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $698,193 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 706 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins60c131,609$78,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,080.061,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Lightning60c85,705$51,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,300.5510349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Lightning60c50,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00016656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e7…be51backed Penguins42c47,224$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,223.631376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+56.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Lightning12c37,812$4,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,587.417749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Lightning62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,6008952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Penguins35c15,000$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,75042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Lightning65c14,223$9,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,244.898354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Penguins41c13,376$5,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,955.938844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning60c12,515$7,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,551.121,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Penguins40c10,726$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,435.596055%33 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning57c10,525$6,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,017.6388151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins41c9,742$3,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,769.821,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Lightning30c9,550$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,867.9627143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Penguins56c9,506$5,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,217.516163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Penguins40c8,200$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9203554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins40c8,091$3,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,861.482,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27c9…2278backed Lightning48c7,373$3,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,503.471752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Lightning61c7,251$4,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425.5828652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Lightning59c7,208$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2535453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Lightning60c7,140$4,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,283.17659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning58c7,000$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0601,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Lightning64c7,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,479.9915949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Lightning62c6,675$4,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,138.528353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Lightning61c5,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0408645.3%39 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Penguins40c3,657$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.257453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c46…2d80backed Penguins41c3,500$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0651560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lightning61c3,400$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,073.9729651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lightning24c3,100$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.862,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lightning48c3,088$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.671,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5293…2f35backed Lightning60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+43.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x29bf…1e8bbacked Lightning61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.981533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-36.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Penguins40c2,914$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.2151452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3597…bb13backed Penguins42c2,832$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning14c2,758$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.3299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning64c2,639$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.6454047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Penguins65c2,448$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.9195049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Penguins35c2,369$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.622546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Lightning11c2,182$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0221048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning57c2,078$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.2692848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Lightning62c2,069$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.637546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Lightning61c2,024$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.1957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning12c2,014$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.511,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Penguins40c1,700$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.1311849.2%58 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lightning12c1,640$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2282043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning61c1,539$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.051,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Lightning61c1,500$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9157338.4%28 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lightning61c1,486$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.761,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning61c1,419$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.5975155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Lightning62c1,414$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.3669550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning64c1,390$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.061,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Penguins36c1,362$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.6810554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning65c1,354$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.11,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Penguins53c1,321$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.7562951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Penguins39c1,295$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.6622550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x291c…ad6bbacked Penguins38c1,282$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.841428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-40.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ad…4365backed Lightning62c1,282$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.841030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x484c…ee61backed Penguins38c1,279$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.981369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+49%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea5f…e99ebacked Penguins38c1,279$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.981361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c79…83b2backed Lightning62c1,279$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.981241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c0…c52cbacked Lightning62c1,279$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.981637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcec…b57bbacked Penguins38c1,275$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.51573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+51.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbcb…b7b5backed Penguins38c1,275$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.51560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…c980backed Lightning62c1,275$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69a0…56dbbacked Lightning62c1,275$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aae…1da6backed Penguins38c1,271$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.021275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+63.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ba5…0538backed Lightning62c1,271$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.021435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb68…d03dbacked Penguins38c1,264$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.681258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd90…76f4backed Lightning62c1,264$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.681442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eab…c581backed Penguins38c1,255$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.11338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65f0…051abacked Lightning62c1,255$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.11233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe5…6349backed Lightning62c1,251$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x343f…4e09backed Penguins38c1,251$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.621540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7583…5f73backed Penguins38c1,245$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.91258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec41…719abacked Lightning62c1,245$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.91346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb3…a67fbacked Penguins38c1,243$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.661643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb77b…2031backed Lightning62c1,243$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.661346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9360…fa27backed Penguins38c1,242$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5144…775bbacked Lightning62c1,242$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39e3…43d7backed Penguins38c1,237$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.941560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…1c8fbacked Lightning62c1,237$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.941250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ee…00dcbacked Penguins38c1,236$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.321457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8174…56f5backed Lightning62c1,236$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.321553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2039…0d59backed Penguins38c1,216$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.921464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+40%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cf7…78b3backed Lightning62c1,216$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.921735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c59…0206backed Penguins38c1,204$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.481457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67db…f9a3backed Lightning62c1,204$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.481323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-47.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43c4…11f2backed Penguins38c1,201$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdef1…c2dbbacked Lightning62c1,201$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.621346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2e…0911backed Lightning62c1,200$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7441154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf8…e587backed Penguins38c1,200$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7441241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x094b…40b5backed Penguins38c1,199$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.381250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2c7…2f3bbacked Lightning62c1,199$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.381428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-38.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc9d6…aa2ebacked Lightning62c1,198$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ea…d6a5backed Penguins38c1,198$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.761435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x768c…3e43backed Lightning62c1,194$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.28955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8672…f279backed Penguins38c1,194$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.281040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Penguins42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.4830946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ba…7310backed Penguins38c1,190$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe220…0fd0backed Lightning62c1,190$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.81533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-30.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.