NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d02eec6423897c5ced643d76f0f0ed1190b2519ee27d43924489cfe5d1d860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $698,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $706,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $698,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 706 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Penguins | 60c | 131,609$78,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,080.06 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…a278backed Lightning | 60c | 85,705$51,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,300.55 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Lightning | 60c | 50,000$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…be51backed Penguins | 42c | 47,224$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,223.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Lightning | 12c | 37,812$4,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.4 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Lightning | 62c | 30,000$18,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,600 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Penguins | 35c | 15,000$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,750 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Lightning | 65c | 14,223$9,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,244.89 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Penguins | 41c | 13,376$5,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,955.9 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 60c | 12,515$7,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,551.12 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…e868backed Penguins | 40c | 10,726$4,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,435.59 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lightning | 57c | 10,525$6,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,017.63 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 41c | 9,742$3,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,769.82 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Lightning | 30c | 9,550$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.96 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Penguins | 56c | 9,506$5,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,217.51 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Penguins | 40c | 8,200$3,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penguins | 40c | 8,091$3,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,861.48 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c9…2278backed Lightning | 48c | 7,373$3,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,503.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Lightning | 61c | 7,251$4,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,425.58 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Lightning | 59c | 7,208$4,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,253 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Lightning | 60c | 7,140$4,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,283.1 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning | 58c | 7,000$4,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,060 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Lightning | 64c | 7,000$4,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,479.99 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Lightning | 62c | 6,675$4,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,138.5 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Lightning | 61c | 5,000$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Penguins | 40c | 3,657$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.2 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…2d80backed Penguins | 41c | 3,500$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Lightning | 61c | 3,400$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.97 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 24c | 3,100$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.86 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 48c | 3,088$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.67 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…2f35backed Lightning | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…1e8bbacked Lightning | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Penguins | 40c | 2,914$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.21 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…bb13backed Penguins | 42c | 2,832$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning | 14c | 2,758$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.32 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning | 64c | 2,639$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.64 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Penguins | 65c | 2,448$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.91 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Penguins | 35c | 2,369$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.6 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Lightning | 11c | 2,182$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.02 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning | 57c | 2,078$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.26 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Lightning | 62c | 2,069$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.63 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Lightning | 61c | 2,024$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.19 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning | 12c | 2,014$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.51 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Penguins | 40c | 1,700$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.13 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lightning | 12c | 1,640$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.22 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning | 61c | 1,539$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.05 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Lightning | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lightning | 61c | 1,486$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.76 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning | 61c | 1,419$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.59 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,414$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.36 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning | 64c | 1,390$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.06 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Penguins | 36c | 1,362$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.68 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning | 65c | 1,354$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.1 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Penguins | 53c | 1,321$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.75 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Penguins | 39c | 1,295$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.66 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291c…ad6bbacked Penguins | 38c | 1,282$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ad…4365backed Lightning | 62c | 1,282$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…ee61backed Penguins | 38c | 1,279$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5f…e99ebacked Penguins | 38c | 1,279$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c79…83b2backed Lightning | 62c | 1,279$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…c52cbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,279$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcec…b57bbacked Penguins | 38c | 1,275$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…b7b5backed Penguins | 38c | 1,275$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…c980backed Lightning | 62c | 1,275$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…56dbbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,275$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…1da6backed Penguins | 38c | 1,271$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.02 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba5…0538backed Lightning | 62c | 1,271$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…d03dbacked Penguins | 38c | 1,264$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd90…76f4backed Lightning | 62c | 1,264$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…c581backed Penguins | 38c | 1,255$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f0…051abacked Lightning | 62c | 1,255$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…6349backed Lightning | 62c | 1,251$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…4e09backed Penguins | 38c | 1,251$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…5f73backed Penguins | 38c | 1,245$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…719abacked Lightning | 62c | 1,245$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…a67fbacked Penguins | 38c | 1,243$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77b…2031backed Lightning | 62c | 1,243$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…fa27backed Penguins | 38c | 1,242$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…775bbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,242$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e3…43d7backed Penguins | 38c | 1,237$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…1c8fbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,237$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ee…00dcbacked Penguins | 38c | 1,236$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…56f5backed Lightning | 62c | 1,236$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…0d59backed Penguins | 38c | 1,216$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…78b3backed Lightning | 62c | 1,216$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0206backed Penguins | 38c | 1,204$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…f9a3backed Lightning | 62c | 1,204$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…11f2backed Penguins | 38c | 1,201$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef1…c2dbbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,201$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…0911backed Lightning | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…e587backed Penguins | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094b…40b5backed Penguins | 38c | 1,199$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c7…2f3bbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,199$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d6…aa2ebacked Lightning | 62c | 1,198$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ea…d6a5backed Penguins | 38c | 1,198$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768c…3e43backed Lightning | 62c | 1,194$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…f279backed Penguins | 38c | 1,194$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Penguins | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…7310backed Penguins | 38c | 1,190$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…0fd0backed Lightning | 62c | 1,190$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Lightningthis page
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.