Ukraine · resolved market
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0288e0047f1ed07d11dd23d1c54ce4c911056208e45287a71e68d8edb0425a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff2b…b73abacked Yes | 9c | 2,217$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 41c | 1,664$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.23 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…102fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,098$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 56c | 893.94$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.86 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 44c | 845$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.58 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 80c | 827.13$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.64 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 22c | 740.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 38c | 729.9$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 31c | 693.85$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 57c | 670.44$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.49 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…63ccbacked Yes | 38c | 508.73$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 499.99$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.44 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked No | 65c | 474.53$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 462.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 411.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…0b58backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 390.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 25c | 384.34$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 43c | 378.18$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.9 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 7c | 361.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 55c | 330$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 47c | 327.32$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 58c | 321.43$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 64c | 303$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 28c | 286.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 40c | 280.46$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 275.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 24c | 245$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 14c | 230.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 60c | 226$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fe4dbacked Yes | 58c | 214.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 60c | 200.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d68…b89dbacked Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…8a52backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 36c | 186$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 170.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c22…9b23backed Yes | 40c | 151.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 67c | 148.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…082fbacked Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 68c | 131.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 36c | 117$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 62c | 112.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…1412backed Yes | 54c | 107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 43c | 106.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 20c | 105.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 72c | 104.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 103.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…56d3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…311fbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…3f90backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…0d15backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…5092backed Yes | 37c | 94.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 54c | 94.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…a314backed Yes | 57c | 91.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9785backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 23c | 89.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee6…8af6backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…18f1backed Yes | 57c | 79.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 37c | 66.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…e8bbbacked Yes | 32c | 63.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…30e9backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 54c | 58.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…194ebacked No | 36c | 56.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7ebcbacked No | 41c | 52.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…a2a4backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a64…a590backed Yes | 57c | 46.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…7d04backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…9049backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?this page
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 20%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.