Ukraine · resolved market
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0409a6f2d8c45f6aeb47fdc332650759405fde404d1e961067d746a1b1c2fa56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x415a…d1e2backed Yes | 20c | 1,953$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,402$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.09 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 80c | 1,050$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.87 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 15c | 866.81$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 17c | 749.46$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 722$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 20c | 600$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c22…9b23backed Yes | 22c | 579.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…102fbacked Yes | 4c | 426.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 331.46$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 21c | 261.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 78c | 259.48$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 22c | 243.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…63ccbacked Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 202$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…311fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…aecfbacked No | 77c | 110.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…9ff7backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 76c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 80c | 75.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…30e9backed Yes | 24c | 63.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…b399backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…497abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 46.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 23c | 46.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…beebbacked No | 78c | 30.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…d67ebacked No | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…e32dbacked No | 75c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…d478backed No | 78c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e6…6cbfbacked No | 77c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca8…ab76backed No | 77c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…d0bfbacked No | 77c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?this page
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 20%?No won
- Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.