TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blue Jackets vs. Panthers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Panthersof Blue Jackets, Panthers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$989,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,049,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $989,028 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 486 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Blue Jackets52c329,390$170,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170,569.271,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Blue Jackets41c186,882$77,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,454.2517749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Blue Jackets41c60,000$24,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,599.9625449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Panthers57c59,901$34,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,853.2138748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Panthers59c59,738$35,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,492.4211955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Panthers52c39,431$20,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,075.67850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Panthers59c39,000$23,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,996.498952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Panthers60c35,565$21,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,226.1856649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Blue Jackets56c35,462$20,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,035.561346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Panthers58c31,216$18,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,110.5247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Panthers60c28,480$17,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,422.4457453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Panthers60c27,345$16,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,071.291,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Panthers60c26,400$15,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,56024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Panthers60c21,100$12,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,44039047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Panthers59c20,278$11,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,280.6428652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Panthers59c20,000$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,199.9810451.9%54 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Panthers59c18,888$11,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,744.0721850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Panthers33c17,692$5,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,791.1527143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea9c…b9bebacked Panthers57c16,714$9,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,236.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Blue Jackets41c15,000$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,15042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4940…0de1backed Blue Jackets41c14,640$6,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,002.391553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Blue Jackets48c12,119$5,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8446833.8%23 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Blue Jackets56c11,641$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,480.4385464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Panthers60c10,995$6,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,431.721,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Panthers60c10,464$6,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.0230152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Panthers41c10,009$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,884.1599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jackets40c9,267$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.561,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad71…4c93backed Panthers59c9,260$5,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,796.61560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Panthers58c9,000$5,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7802955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Panthers58c8,500$4,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5701,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Panthers24c8,213$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,268.2124654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Panthers35c7,873$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.542,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Panthers41c7,181$2,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,205.7361848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Panthers32c6,964$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,735.2317057.6%98 W · 72 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Blue Jackets60c6,525$3,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,942.2957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Panthers32c6,515$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,430.2926344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Blue Jackets2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…903dbacked Panthers59c5,380$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Blue Jackets41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Blue Jackets41c4,859$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Blue Jackets42c4,018$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.7822946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Panthers59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Panthers58c3,950$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.3875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Panthers58c3,858$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.367659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blue Jackets60c3,843$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.641,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Blue Jackets41c3,769$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.2793953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Panthers40c3,684$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.362,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Panthers59c3,465$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.62,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Panthers59c3,438$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.3762249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Panthers62c3,226$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.814032.5%13 W · 27 L-8.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Panthers60c2,878$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.3869550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Panthers46c2,590$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.6582043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Panthers62c2,564$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.916253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Panthers59c2,500$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blue Jackets41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3909…56d7backed Blue Jackets41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…f7b4backed Panthers59c2,500$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Blue Jackets40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9186649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Panthers58c2,490$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.781,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…4555backed Panthers31c2,453$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Panthers59c2,441$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.688543.5%37 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Panthers59c2,391$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.117250%36 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Blue Jackets58c2,241$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Blue Jackets1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fc…dd38backed Panthers59c2,100$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8613100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Panthers60c2,100$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9892848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf1…9eaebacked Panthers27c2,027$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4835261.5%32 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Panthers59c2,023$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.122248.2%107 W · 115 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Panthers59c2,009$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.691,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Panthers59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Panthers59c1,990$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.833053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Blue Jackets42c1,857$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78015954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Panthers27c1,827$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.3842254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Panthers31c1,806$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.455248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Panthers59c1,800$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7386835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Blue Jackets40c1,800$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7124447.7%21 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Blue Jackets41c1,732$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f2…0193backed Blue Jackets64c1,558$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Panthers59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6156648.5%32 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x834e…78c4backed Blue Jackets41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Panthers59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.991,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Blue Jackets42c1,482$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.3311151.4%57 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…3598backed Blue Jackets75c1,427$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.81540%6 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Panthers58c1,390$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.87354.8%40 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Blue Jackets41c1,330$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.9316241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Blue Jackets42c1,324$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.1818132%58 W · 123 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Panthers59c1,324$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.711,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Blue Jackets41c1,314$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.971,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf84…a7b5backed Blue Jackets4c1,281$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524928.6%14 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-49.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed Panthers53c1,257$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.189642.7%41 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3131…b93bbacked Blue Jackets41c1,237$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Panthers59c1,229$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.8975155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Blue Jackets41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008541.2%35 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Blue Jackets41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Blue Jackets53c1,217$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.6718159.7%108 W · 73 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Panthers60c1,208$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.217744.6%79 W · 98 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Panthers34c1,196$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.415839.9%63 W · 95 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Panthers41c1,193$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.291,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd30…e95ebacked Panthers59c1,153$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x434e…548fbacked Blue Jackets42c1,119$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.