Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x497d5c385675f9cc3b03a6900037513f4635d2bdd114d05b14b2438fd07263c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,820$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 3,379$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 5c | 2,095$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 11c | 868.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 756.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 2c | 682.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 604.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 4c | 565.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 22c | 517.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 23c | 509.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 17c | 508.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 20c | 498.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 12c | 377.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 69c | 367.37$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 18c | 269.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 10c | 243.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 17c | 201.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 13c | 200.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 11c | 200.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 23c | 199.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 8c | 188$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 7c | 187.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 182.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 9c | 155.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 136.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 123.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 11c | 111.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…e15abacked Yes | 21c | 110.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 14c | 103.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb24…8250backed Yes | 21c | 102.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 15c | 100.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 97.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 11c | 97.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 19c | 91.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 90.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 18c | 84.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 74.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed Yes | 20c | 70.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 70.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 69.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 75c | 64.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 77c | 63.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 24c | 56.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 24c | 51.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…a3b6backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 48.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed No | 79c | 44.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 75c | 39.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…2384backed Yes | 30c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 75c | 36.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 72c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 72c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.