TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x331b…193fbacked No0c8,796$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0990040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed No0c8,570$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1410924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked No0c8,568$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.933534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No1c6,109$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No1c2,035$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5422265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4921…5238backed No1c2,035$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No1c2,032$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.39272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No10c1,798$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5861821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes23c951.51$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.178151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes65c869.2$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.8356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No77c854.57$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.733669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes17c790.47$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.8610225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c765.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.997,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c638.73$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.1817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes33c636.89$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.0410120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No20c592.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.822,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3141…f16abacked Yes80c592$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.45563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c527.96$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.196,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes13c460.89$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.021,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bc…eb26backed No78c445.02$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.83540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes67c441.77$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7325362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No16c380.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7233620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c371.51$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes6c348.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.3134918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes15c344.96$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.253122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes7c338.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.161,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2764…b6acbacked Yes25c336.22$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.99450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+89.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed No76c288.57$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.66144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No38c284.5$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.214,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes20c259.72$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7360519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed No21c233.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.987021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes30c220.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.681,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No33c215.52$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.892,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe14e…4286backed Yes79c213.17$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.36785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes46c210.65$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7617643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x465a…3b86backed No25c206.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7250%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.61450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No80c198.22$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2114372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes20c197.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.211,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e7…43abbacked No36c196.63$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.08812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes18c196.51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No17c194.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1921429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes72c193.12$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1236648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes58c192.68$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2959440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed No41c192.46$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.162725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes59c192.27$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33c…bf48backed No29c190.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.222326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed Yes31c189.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.318143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No39c187.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…42a6backed Yes11c184.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.343826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes20c175.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.732,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No43c173.37$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2732652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No79c163.61$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes8c159.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.476317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1153…152dbacked Yes11c159.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+317.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62fa…187dbacked No23c159.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.144634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes60c157.37$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.991,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No57c138.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.91,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes49c138.31$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8113042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed67…c92dbacked No74c132.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes58c130$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes77c128.21$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.451,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…5447backed Yes60c127.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+263.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes64c120.91$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.64,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No50c120.79$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7326265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes63c117.91$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0629459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes17c117.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6130046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes60c117$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.814338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes24c110.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.231,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes21c108.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes73c102.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.853253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c101$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1501…5723backed Yes25c100.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7612735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b8…b518backed No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcc69…5797backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.32025%5 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No76c97.6$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f7…9939backed No35c94.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.713823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed No41c94.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6311565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes20c91.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7831029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c90.84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.293,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes60c84.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6128742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No75c82.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes52c80.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.171,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes13c80.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.99,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes24c77.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.355853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes25c75.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9548331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes74c74.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.632,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes80c74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1530664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No77c73.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.416968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes23c65.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes78c62.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.911060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…f41abacked No78c62.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.91757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.