Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3926753ba1e402a28832269eac8773674fbfab357fb165f2e16323d05af6ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 18,681$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.98 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,664$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 0c | 9,458$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,369$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 6c | 2,897$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 0c | 2,760$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 1,839$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.02 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb4…5071backed Yes | 1c | 1,727$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 1,678$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.31 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…3b86backed Yes | 4c | 1,641$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…3496backed Yes | 1c | 1,402$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,387$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,198$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.09 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Yes | 1c | 1,044$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 815.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 17c | 684.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 2c | 598.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 545.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 536.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 54c | 440.34$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.78 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 30c | 436.46$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 80c | 407.81$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 378.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 80c | 301.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 11c | 277.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 14c | 265.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 54c | 262.94$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 249.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 31c | 242.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 18c | 241.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 14c | 233.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 39c | 232.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 231.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 229.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 7c | 227.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed No | 78c | 217.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 215.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 12c | 200.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 8c | 199.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 197.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 195.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 187.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked No | 79c | 184.96$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 30c | 161.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 17c | 158.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…6942backed Yes | 18c | 147.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 146.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…43abbacked Yes | 19c | 138.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 137.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 70c | 129.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked No | 79c | 126.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 15c | 123.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…1ffebacked Yes | 22c | 122.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes | 13c | 103.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 100.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 28c | 99.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 14c | 97.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 96.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 20c | 92.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 87.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 21c | 86.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…cf37backed Yes | 29c | 80.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 14c | 80.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 79.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…9c59backed No | 80c | 76.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 18c | 74.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 80c | 73.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 66.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 20c | 66.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272a…88cfbacked Yes | 21c | 66.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 20c | 60.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 67c | 59.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 57.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 52c | 55.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 54.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes | 28c | 53.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 20c | 50.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…a3b6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 43c | 46.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…80c1backed No | 78c | 45.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 57c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed Yes | 54c | 22.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed No | 76c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.