Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb2a64d3d5d9314107a44ffd4d51548ce73dcbf79f9ee7b9490fd742c0fb4e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 2c | 3,403$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 5c | 719.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 5c | 713.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 635.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 14c | 514.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 20c | 447.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 8c | 361.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 356.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 22c | 338.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 326.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 270.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 266.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 13c | 249.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 13c | 209.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 207.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed No | 79c | 187.8$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 172.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 166.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 131.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 116.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 22c | 116.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 25c | 114.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 13c | 104.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 24c | 97.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 96.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 19c | 95.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 12c | 95.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 25c | 93.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 23c | 89.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 88.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 13c | 86.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 81.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…9fbdbacked No | 78c | 80.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed Yes | 24c | 76.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 18c | 74.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 22c | 73.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…399ebacked Yes | 27c | 68.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 59.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 24c | 46.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 70c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 19.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 75c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…d7c9backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…81f4backed No | 77c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df4…a56ebacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.