Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd848f923b97f6836e7fd4d83784f2498f6744b0ab8c0ba49dcd7549854dddd4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 443.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…411abacked Yes | 25c | 299.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 79c | 270.45$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed No | 76c | 263.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 228.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 79c | 221.48$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 75c | 186.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 178.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 20c | 171.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 74c | 155.02$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 149.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 149.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 136.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 134.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 132.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 77c | 129.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 114.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 108.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 105.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…70acbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 19c | 94.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 15c | 91.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 83.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 29c | 81.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 79.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 28c | 71.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 65.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 24c | 60.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 55.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 55.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 52.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…71adbacked Yes | 23c | 51.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 22c | 50.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…22adbacked Yes | 23c | 50.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 28c | 48.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 79c | 46.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…a390backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 36.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 75c | 28.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 73c | 20.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 76c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…3489backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…fea7backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 78c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 75c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 13.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.