TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,227 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c15…90d5backed No76c2,962$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.53865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No10c1,171$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.638356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes36c908.18$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.31,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No11c799$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.165,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes73c771.81$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes11c539.85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes6c444$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.5835232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes39c392.91$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.395,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c386.22$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.741,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes53c350.92$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7224466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes26c323.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.882,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No22c292.21$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.64,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes49c240.72$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.271,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No44c232.7$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.163,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No40c225.1$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No15c222.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No17c215.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0531219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes39c214.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8611438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes41c209.82$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4135429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No77c193.69$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4912329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa00…3316backed Yes36c186.93$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.12850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes21c178.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.971,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No15c170$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.095,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes48c167.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.27825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No67c156.88$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.525466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes23c154.31$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.151,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes17c149.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0533232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2af9…d04ebacked No20c146.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.88825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c145.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.453,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes36c136.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No76c130.09$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.124262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes29c124.47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.951,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes47c121.96$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.516934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No58c116.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52e…8f98backed No56c115.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.972638.5%10 W · 16 L-7.2wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-41.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No76c102.75$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7523668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes44c102.07$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.744731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb7…90b5backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7771031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes36c99.94$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.257237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes25c94.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.813,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes34c87.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.055633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c85.47$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.272,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes69c82.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7224066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No16c82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.973,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes32c79.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes41c72.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.62920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No18c72.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c70.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Yes66c67.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.377047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb6…85afbacked Yes75c66.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.321770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes78c64.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3919551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes58c64.02$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.239346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No40c62.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.152,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes24c61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1632738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.133,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes30c59.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9914635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No70c59.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.891,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No53c59.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.341051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No69c59.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8814674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5160…80d2backed Yes35c56.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c53.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes29c52.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1617831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes77c51.71$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.714060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No21c50.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6829717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…6ea0backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52556%14 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.152030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes31c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4954232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No73c49.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed No28c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1425042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed Yes40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.994257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes41c49.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.212437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…d0babacked No55c46.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5610653.8%57 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.852,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No56c44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.435,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…c8bbbacked No73c43.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.941566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26da…8999backed Yes34c42.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.94323.3%10 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes35c42.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4612941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes47c41.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.731,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes73c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0734651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No64c40.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.181,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc18…e3a2backed No62c39.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e4…4753backed Yes43c38.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.06977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes35c38.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.931,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No38c37.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2809…5f75backed No64c37.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.771675%12 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2275…c88bbacked Yes39c34.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c33.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aff…9945backed Yes56c33.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.63875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No46c33.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2525049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c32.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.012,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…97c9backed No47c32.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28fe…1640backed Yes48c32.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.672982.8%24 W · 5 L+7.3wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+48.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No69c31.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.