Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaef96fe6c5e226a28e4f35b2a27a9324caa10e34766e5ab8e174f086dd1b1109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 5,063$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,623$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,185$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 811.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 14c | 588.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed Yes | 29c | 505.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.31 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…66a2backed Yes | 22c | 449.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 19c | 421.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 410.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 72c | 375.72$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…2e9abacked Yes | 16c | 332.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 286.05$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 12c | 273.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 270.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 17c | 248.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 245.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 236.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…3316backed Yes | 57c | 225.53$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 5c | 220.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 14c | 220.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 213.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 213.37$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 210.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 18c | 183.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 173.16$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 162.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 7c | 159.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 30c | 158.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 141.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 138.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 17c | 134.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 17c | 99.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed Yes | 20c | 99.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 93.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 30c | 90.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 90.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 86.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 17c | 85.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 21c | 82.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…8c3ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…d9bfbacked Yes | 18c | 77.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 76.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…93c2backed No | 80c | 75.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 20c | 66.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 59.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…cdc5backed Yes | 28c | 58.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 19c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 78c | 52.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 19c | 51.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 44.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 42c | 41.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…3d6abacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 41c | 32.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…9945backed Yes | 60c | 31.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 67c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 80c | 25.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.