Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a32563e39b5de8e401a99474de223ba768dbf80b7c51e3f133cb13227e0e8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,307 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 0c | 10,042$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 27c | 525.52$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.84 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 492$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 389.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.2 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 347.67$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 344.76$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 336.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 67c | 294.17$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 54c | 256$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 30c | 228.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 36c | 215.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 29c | 215.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.96 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 212$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 205.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.83 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 77c | 174.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 159.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb0…6aa1backed Yes | 60c | 152.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 33c | 150.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…5688backed Yes | 67c | 149.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 30c | 147.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…4687backed Yes | 35c | 147.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 22c | 137.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 67c | 128.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…abb4backed Yes | 54c | 122.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 29c | 121.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 71c | 120.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 56c | 119.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…3d8abacked No | 70c | 107$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 36c | 100.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 72c | 95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…f66ebacked Yes | 74c | 94.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 92.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 69c | 90.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1f…1df2backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 84.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Yes | 33c | 80.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 77.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…a382backed Yes | 65c | 76.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 63.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 24c | 63.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 61.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 22c | 59.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 58.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 68c | 58.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 54.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 51.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 50.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 26c | 49.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 44.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 44.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 40.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 38.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 37.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 40c | 37.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 35.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 62c | 34.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 36c | 33.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 33.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 33.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 57c | 26.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 66c | 25.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 74c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…a14cbacked No | 78c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 63c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…30aebacked Yes | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 72c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.