Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9aa1245e3cd7cfe5f999b89c2128b788f21bcd2d490d8057ee0e695e4d0d2fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 0c | 4,858$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 1,267$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 689.03$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 611.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 358.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 252.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.77 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb0…6aa1backed Yes | 28c | 226.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 38c | 218.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 212$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 68c | 202.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 25c | 171.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.93 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 142.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 140.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 138.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 75c | 128.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 30c | 106.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 101.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 21c | 99.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 32c | 93.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 92.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 14c | 89.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 76c | 89.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 86.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 85.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 25c | 82.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Yes | 27c | 80.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 79.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 35c | 71.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 61.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 59.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 31c | 53.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 73c | 52.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…3179backed Yes | 22c | 49.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 36c | 49.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 36c | 44.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 43.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 39.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 78c | 34.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 34.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 29.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 25.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 46c | 22.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 22.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 20.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 19.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 79c | 15.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 71c | 15.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 73c | 15.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.