Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa93acaffc11a125a90b428a97462ee8d323bb85609b5c575be9123c412c1b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,949 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 446.68$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 423.18$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 76c | 268.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 212$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 207.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 31c | 173.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…4687backed Yes | 26c | 150.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 28c | 131.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 122.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 26c | 118.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 118.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 36c | 118.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 91.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked Yes | 34c | 89.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 22c | 87.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 80.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 69.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 63.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 30c | 61.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…d87abacked Yes | 33c | 57.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 55.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…9b9cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 32c | 46.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 45.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 75c | 44.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 34c | 43.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 26c | 39.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 73c | 38.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 35.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed No | 78c | 29.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 73c | 22.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…462abacked No | 78c | 21.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…26febacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.