Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc399551aee603c8efd77beb7d65ee70a7a208e54dd427de7df4823f06ec19a77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 54c | 3,613$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.96 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 55c | 2,389$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.94 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 61c | 1,776$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.68 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 53c | 1,427$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.79 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Up | 25c | 1,225$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…f6dabacked Up | 36c | 1,200$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Up | 47c | 1,136$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.62 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…9f59backed Up | 51c | 1,000$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…5741backed Up | 39c | 999.99$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 51c | 810.49$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.04 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Up | 3c | 768.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 42c | 767.77$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.55 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Up | 1c | 749.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…8c85backed Down | 60c | 738.11$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Up | 51c | 613$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Up | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Up | 52c | 600$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…23f6backed Down | 68c | 556.38$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Up | 51c | 510$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 49c | 496.57$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.92 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Up | 49c | 489.67$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 50c | 444.12$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.92 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Up | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…d9bebacked Up | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b68…c0aebacked Up | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Up | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Up | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Up | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6e…adcdbacked Up | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 52c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Up | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x868a…13b8backed Up | 50c | 265.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee0…06d5backed Up | 50c | 244.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Down | 70c | 222.75$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Up | 7c | 214.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Up | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…6a1abacked Up | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…29b2backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…b491backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…f7e8backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…ff40backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…b7ecbacked Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…da21backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…792abacked Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 35c | 182.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 8c | 169.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 10c | 162.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…b417backed Up | 50c | 130.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Up | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…e55dbacked Up | 53c | 60.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Up | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa0…eea6backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Up | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Down | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.