TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$222,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,945 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4060…3ec3backed Up55c29,855$16,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,348.5429264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed Down5c26,905$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.4615056%84 W · 66 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+40.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x888c…ec00backed Down15c12,725$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Up69c9,700$6,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.777847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Down39c8,895$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,440.821,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Up80c7,013$5,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.8293840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d10…3bddbacked Down16c6,424$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Up79c5,501$4,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.714254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5f…ca75backed Down14c4,847$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Down23c4,464$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.377244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Up72c4,185$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.3977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down3c3,423$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.921011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…b236backed Down35c3,311$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.862445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+118.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Down32c3,159$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.59758.8%57 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Down23c2,992$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.7930443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9c7…147abacked Down54c2,990$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.652536%9 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05dd…e2afbacked Down23c2,857$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.9814143.3%61 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7151…4404backed Down35c2,826$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.061241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4773…2289backed Up78c2,813$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e68…826bbacked Down27c2,738$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.551442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Up78c2,294$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.333056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed Down48c2,200$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5292…2b7dbacked Up53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf60e…936dbacked Down46c1,865$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.733641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Up31c1,841$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.3830738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Up37c1,509$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.9325661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x547c…0844backed Down53c1,121$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef4…930ebacked Up48c1,115$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb920…1b19backed Down30c1,110$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.5916137.9%61 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c13…3c34backed Up68c1,024$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.262751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Down64c800$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c88…383abacked Down52c748.78$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…b35ebacked Up77c730$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed Down37c632$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Up60c565.57$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.677960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…625ebacked Down51c530.38$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Down18c502.23$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.49422.3%21 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Down52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+59.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe105…185bbacked Down48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed Up50c491.89$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.088459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d4a…4256backed Up35c451.44$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.051060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c64…afe2backed Down28c445.96$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31dd…3c7abacked Up77c445.54$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64da…fc36backed Down70c426.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7b8…0d21backed Down3c413.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.35549.1%27 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f88…d2efbacked Up77c410$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc044…2d08backed Up59c342.73$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.652055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb09…738dbacked Down62c307.62$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.72650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Up76c300$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Down35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked Down28c269.7$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.632245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9c…2a8abacked Up49c263.27$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.183100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+181%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Up75c260.31$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.183450%17 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up53c240.56$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.297234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8176…2845backed Up48c235$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfa…2a29backed Down23c220$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed Down23c212.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2811838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadb7…90b5backed Down44c210$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ca…e0f0backed Down51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Up79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…9644backed Up54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b98…c905backed Up54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ab…77a1backed Down51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Up78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b48…41bbbacked Down19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe17…b4bdbacked Up54c197.43$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Up76c196.14$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.84540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down40c181.71$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.028844.3%39 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed Down31c176.29$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.54957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked Up71c174.67$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-76.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf3…02d2backed Up78c170$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e90…f911backed Down53c162.87$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked Down19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked Up77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.53661.1%22 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8803…5472backed Down13c144.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Up36c134.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.42646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e7…68e0backed Up76c125$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+128.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x411a…5a86backed Down31c115$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Up69c115$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.651060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+99%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91eb…143ebacked Down26c112.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…98e3backed Up35c109.91$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.44119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down33c104.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0911736.8%43 W · 74 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0102…32afbacked Up62c100.01$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d66…af0dbacked Down57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea8a…b51ebacked Up46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick55cpaid+88.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3df…91a3backed Down50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed Up70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Down30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf212…a810backed Down64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0512…4106backed Down28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Up63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377838.5%30 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xccdd…aab4backed Down65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a2…1843backed Up63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c2…ea58backed Up54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67a4…eab4backed Up54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff5a…ab91backed Down21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+68.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1165…f10cbacked Down53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed Up53c93.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.851369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed1…908cbacked Up60c79.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f4…43ddbacked Up80c78.25$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.651241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.