Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11bb5f0d9ef6140790726e47fef7f607c0b43ca512916176df625608a32092a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 55c | 29,855$16,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,348.54 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 5c | 26,905$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.46 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…ec00backed Down | 15c | 12,725$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 69c | 9,700$6,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,010.77 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 39c | 8,895$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,440.82 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 80c | 7,013$5,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.82 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d10…3bddbacked Down | 16c | 6,424$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 79c | 5,501$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.71 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…ca75backed Down | 14c | 4,847$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Down | 23c | 4,464$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.37 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed Up | 72c | 4,185$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 3c | 3,423$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Down | 35c | 3,311$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 32c | 3,159$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.5 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 23c | 2,992$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.79 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Down | 54c | 2,990$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 23c | 2,857$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.98 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Down | 35c | 2,826$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed Up | 78c | 2,813$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Down | 27c | 2,738$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Up | 78c | 2,294$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.33 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Down | 48c | 2,200$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5292…2b7dbacked Up | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Down | 46c | 1,865$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.73 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 31c | 1,841$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.38 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 37c | 1,509$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.93 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x547c…0844backed Down | 53c | 1,121$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef4…930ebacked Up | 48c | 1,115$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Down | 30c | 1,110$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.59 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed Up | 68c | 1,024$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Down | 64c | 800$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c88…383abacked Down | 52c | 748.78$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…b35ebacked Up | 77c | 730$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed Down | 37c | 632$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 60c | 565.57$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.67 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…625ebacked Down | 51c | 530.38$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Down | 18c | 502.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Down | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Down | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Up | 50c | 491.89$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…4256backed Up | 35c | 451.44$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c64…afe2backed Down | 28c | 445.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Up | 77c | 445.54$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…fc36backed Down | 70c | 426.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 3c | 413.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…d2efbacked Up | 77c | 410$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…2d08backed Up | 59c | 342.73$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Down | 62c | 307.62$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Up | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Down | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Down | 28c | 269.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…2a8abacked Up | 49c | 263.27$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +181%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Up | 75c | 260.31$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 53c | 240.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8176…2845backed Up | 48c | 235$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…2a29backed Down | 23c | 220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 23c | 212.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Down | 44c | 210$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ca…e0f0backed Down | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Up | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Up | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…c905backed Up | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ab…77a1backed Down | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Up | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…41bbbacked Down | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…b4bdbacked Up | 54c | 197.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Up | 76c | 196.14$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 40c | 181.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Down | 31c | 176.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Up | 71c | 174.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…02d2backed Up | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…f911backed Down | 53c | 162.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked Down | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked Up | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…5472backed Down | 13c | 144.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Up | 36c | 134.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…68e0backed Up | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Down | 31c | 115$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Up | 69c | 115$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91eb…143ebacked Down | 26c | 112.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed Up | 35c | 109.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 33c | 104.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Up | 62c | 100.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Down | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8a…b51ebacked Up | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…91a3backed Down | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Up | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Down | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0512…4106backed Down | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…aab4backed Down | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…1843backed Up | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c2…ea58backed Up | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…eab4backed Up | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Down | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked Down | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Up | 53c | 93.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…908cbacked Up | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…43ddbacked Up | 80c | 78.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.