TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4060…3ec3backed Down18c21,590$3,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,953.8529264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Up74c13,857$10,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.876521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Up38c8,208$3,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.417244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Up80c7,692$6,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.747847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Down29c5,148$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.3230443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed Down20c4,459$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.088459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down15c4,332$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.2415221.7%33 W · 119 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Down77c3,874$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Up75c2,825$2,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.13560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Up31c2,692$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.44977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+52.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05dd…e2afbacked Down19c2,498$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.0314143.3%61 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Down40c2,427$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.791,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Down27c2,177$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.0530738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down2c1,541$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.821011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Down3c1,510$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.861,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Down23c1,301$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.167932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Up19c1,294$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+162.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b3…7cfabacked Up76c1,200$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da0…523cbacked Down67c1,128$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Down20c1,029$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.694122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd78…837bbacked Up77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf60e…936dbacked Down15c927.66$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.643641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e66…de61backed Down25c861$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…b236backed Down19c850$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+118.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Up71c800$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2294254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x492c…26c5backed Down25c754.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb7…90b5backed Down24c698$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb09…738dbacked Up75c672$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4a…4256backed Down74c600$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4411060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb59…83f9backed Down23c588.28$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.422737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f7…3407backed Up55c556.67$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5e1backed Down79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…3ff6backed Down26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3179…b275backed Up21c500$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3951100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb64f…c974backed Up77c500$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b8…0d21backed Down26c401.19$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.175549.1%27 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Down21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849422.3%21 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Down30c399.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.713450%17 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d5…1343backed Down11c359.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe105…185bbacked Up78c358$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.762958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb920…1b19backed Up48c334.31$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9616137.9%61 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Down32c323.26$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.14768.1%32 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Up78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fef…66ecbacked Down20c294.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.191346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked Up76c283.8$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.682245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee98…113dbacked Down19c230$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c4b…fcaebacked Up79c220.48$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Up65c207.84$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.227960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up59c200.31$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.678844.3%39 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf76a…b506backed Down61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b3e…b127backed Up78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dca…8172backed Up78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aac…9603backed Down20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc624…76cfbacked Up78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Up69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b77…ea9cbacked Down25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb451…467bbacked Down57c197.53$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.59850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e7…f559backed Up34c159.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.054047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Down8c155.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-89.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf3…02d2backed Down32c153.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked Down12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Down59c142.43$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7236550.4%184 W · 181 L+15.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Up66c139.19$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.019758.8%57 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c36…2646backed Down10c135.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked Down20c132$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-76.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc329…1cc8backed Up76c131.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0254…efdbbacked Down67c129.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.22330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Down8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f4…43ddbacked Down25c123.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Up63c122.87$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.463056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Up20c122.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9470…989dbacked Down17c110$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down36c102$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.721,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b81…1210backed Down52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.263348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45fb…6a11backed Up76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2010…18febacked Up58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c12…3d74backed Down33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x304c…b1cabacked Down25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dee…5600backed Up76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811736.8%43 W · 74 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Down18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1825661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed Up77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec09…1db9backed Down13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134621.7%10 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00eb…4cf0backed Down51c95.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08bf…df57backed Up80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181855.6%10 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick72cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdff…86babacked Up22c83.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e7…68e0backed Up22c73.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.46875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+128.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c3d…f1f4backed Up78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e71…be4cbacked Up64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+31%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Down61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc59…46b5backed Up20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Up66c45.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.53354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eda…fb8ebacked Up58c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca0…3738backed Down55c36.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc7…9f65backed Down44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc74…4035backed Up79c24.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.19955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.