TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,576,333
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,638,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,576,333 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 845 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8764…604abacked Suns29c429,901$124,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124,069.757266.7%48 W · 24 L+14.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Suns29c250,000$72,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,499.9632653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe14…11eebacked Thunder71c134,000$95,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,859.99955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Thunder71c130,000$92,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,7004742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Suns29c109,182$31,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,357.948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder71c105,084$74,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,974.34,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder70c95,739$67,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,721.61,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Suns32c74,162$23,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,744.4476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Thunder74c67,567$49,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,592.1536359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Thunder71c63,049$44,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,285.879053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder71c61,522$43,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,862.492,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Thunder71c52,291$37,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,200.921,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f6…af37backed Suns29c50,000$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,70050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Suns30c46,098$13,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,810.9428742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder70c45,723$32,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,716.811,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Suns28c45,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5007142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Suns29c42,663$12,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,572.3260351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder70c40,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.9738253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder72c38,058$27,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,841.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Thunder70c35,368$24,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,610.5510459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Suns29c35,208$10,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,281.191,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Suns30c35,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,399.9951844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns29c34,250$9,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,862.054,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder70c32,729$23,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,695.351,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Suns26c30,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,799.930845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb64f…0d2abacked Thunder72c29,998$21,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.434856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Suns28c29,995$8,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,398.5715247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Suns29c29,494$8,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,553.383847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns30c29,252$8,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,772.811,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Suns31c25,000$7,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,749.9919653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Suns0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ee…eb13backed Suns30c23,329$6,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,998.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder70c22,942$16,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,940.429,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder72c22,500$16,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3752,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns24c20,950$4,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,929.522,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Thunder78c20,788$16,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.5911344.2%50 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Thunder71c20,356$14,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,967.31,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Thunder71c20,325$14,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,882.1519560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Suns30c20,016$5,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,904.7423245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Thunder71c20,000$14,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.957441.9%31 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder69c19,632$13,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,08861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Thunder69c18,921$13,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,815.242,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Thunder71c18,800$13,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,45217356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Thunder71c18,505$13,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,428.0231644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Thunder72c18,500$13,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,095.0921549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder71c17,608$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,107.661,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Suns31c17,000$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,234.9539349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder71c16,628$11,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,857.391,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Suns28c16,000$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.9835547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Thunder70c15,012$10,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.4820551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Suns30c15,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50018747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder75c13,717$10,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,475.658,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Thunder71c13,067$9,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.4348352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bd…b7aabacked Thunder70c13,000$9,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Thunder71c11,257$7,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.6228649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Thunder71c11,100$7,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.7313357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Thunder71c11,026$7,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,197.6424942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Suns5c11,005$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2983039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Suns0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Suns1c10,578$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9667911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Suns0c10,390$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3919051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c44…752ebacked Suns0c10,025$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Thunder75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5008944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Suns29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9001850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked Thunder75c9,732$7,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4137035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns8c9,589$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.261,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Suns1c9,572$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.615213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Suns29c9,313$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.8429650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Suns28c9,044$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.3444352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Suns31c9,000$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Thunder69c9,000$6,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.998052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Thunder71c8,350$5,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.416848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder72c8,118$5,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,298.225,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Thunder70c8,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Thunder71c7,665$5,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,222.8510642.5%45 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder73c7,498$5,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.522,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Thunder72c7,300$5,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.5820947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Thunder70c7,100$4,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.717653.4%94 W · 82 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4a…744abacked Suns26c7,000$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8201050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Suns30c7,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10050239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb5…3fbfbacked Suns30c7,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1006445.3%29 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder70c6,542$4,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.4166646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Thunder71c6,461$4,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.5620948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Thunder68c6,407$4,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.3220048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Thunder68c6,205$4,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.614663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Thunder72c6,016$4,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9648956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2a5…55d6backed Thunder70c6,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Thunder69c6,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Suns29c5,627$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.798939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Suns30c5,568$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.2636351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa52e…453fbacked Thunder70c5,515$3,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.0816251.2%83 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Suns29c5,172$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns31c5,050$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938f…f13fbacked Thunder71c5,005$3,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.455349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Suns31c5,000$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.2225947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf32…5159backed Suns26c4,991$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.663231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Thunder71c4,980$3,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.25251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bab…cf38backed Thunder71c4,800$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.149859.2%58 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Suns32c4,674$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.