TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,843 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over49c4,000$1,960 inWon+$2,039.981,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under56c3,671$2,054 inLost-$2,053.999,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over44c3,189$1,403 inWon+$1,785.8338251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under51c1,493$764 inLost-$763.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under51c1,353$690 inLost-$69047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over49c1,234$600 inWon+$633.8265750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under52c972.89$502 inLost-$502.443,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over46c758.77$347 inWon+$411.973,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under51c724$369 inLost-$369.242,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c473.46$241 inLost-$241.464,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under53c235.97$124 inLost-$124.382,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under5c217.51$11 inLost-$10.8883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd913…2cf7backed Over70c214.71$150 inWon+$64.713438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under51c208.33$106 inLost-$106.2563447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Under30c184.71$55 inLost-$55.4165542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under51c155$79 inLost-$79.051,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under54c100$54 inLost-$5449351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under51c38.04$19 inLost-$19.495047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Under52c30.76$16 inLost-$1635049.4%173 W · 177 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over63c29$18 inWon+$10.6888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Under51c28.75$15 inLost-$14.6633653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under55c20.36$11 inLost-$11.329645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Over50c20$10 inWon+$1019346.1%89 W · 104 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.