NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 217.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397c3bf3f316577884c196c97c083612b0a4ac9d0cd4466d3eb37f4bec11f4b5

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,473 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc617…a854backed Over	47c	4,848$2,279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,569.59	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under	53c	3,500$1,855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,855	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over	47c	2,383$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,262.98	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	52c	2,333$1,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,204.63	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	52c	1,014$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.28	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over	48c	833.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.33	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Under	55c	660$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x383f…38c0backed Over	60c	586.27$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.1	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+47.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	53c	545.97$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.58	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under	52c	481.45$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	51c	477.99$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.83	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x869f…7a8bbacked Under	51c	472.5$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.98	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	45c	419.06$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.91	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	39c	356.37$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.98	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e4b…1ff9backed Over	52c	306.55$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.94	163	47.2%77 W · 86 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	45c	274.26$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.75	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	591	44.5%263 W · 328 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	63c	172.15$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.24	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under	35c	144.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	529	51.2%271 W · 258 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	53c	101.79$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.95	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc76…d308backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	124	64.5%80 W · 44 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Under	53c	76.16$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.36	336	53.9%181 W · 155 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under	56c	64.84$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.49	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Over	49c	59.49$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.34	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Under	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	293	51.9%152 W · 141 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	60c	53.26$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.31	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under	53c	53.2$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1925…8249backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	112	52.7%59 W · 53 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	45c	45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.95	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over	47c	43.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.32	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over	46c	42.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.9	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	52c	41.3$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.73	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…2caebacked Over	43c	33.26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.96	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	39c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.3	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	50c	26.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Over	49c	24.3$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.39	93	49.5%46 W · 47 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Over	49c	23.8$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.14	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+14%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under	53c	20.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	215	53.5%115 W · 100 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	296	45.6%135 W · 161 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Under	51c	19.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	602	67.3%405 W · 197 L	+46.2wins	+0.08per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 217.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event