TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,476 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c2,881$1,345 inWon+$1,535.299,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under53c1,896$1,005 inLost-$1,004.741,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under53c566.95$301 inLost-$301.264,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Under53c471.7$250 inLost-$25016440.9%67 W · 97 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacc9…b1f8backed Under55c352.97$194 inLost-$194.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed80…8ee3backed Under54c352.92$191 inLost-$190.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d82…94c9backed Over47c349.42$164 inWon+$185.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x965d…be86backed Over47c336.72$158 inWon+$178.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Over39c179.29$69 inWon+$109.972365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+63.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under46c64.5$30 inLost-$29.674,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Over54c64.5$35 inWon+$29.6718957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under61c59.05$36 inLost-$35.7657657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under62c52.86$33 inLost-$331,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under55c50.41$27 inLost-$27.481,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over45c49.99$22 inWon+$27.492,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over38c47.35$18 inWon+$29.5388057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Under54c37.3$20 inLost-$2040960.6%248 W · 161 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…2caebacked Over41c34.38$14 inWon+$20.282454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Under61c33.34$20 inLost-$20.216036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e6…5a30backed Under64c31.26$20 inLost-$203366.7%22 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over36c30.66$11 inWon+$19.6250841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81be…1df3backed Over47c21.69$10 inWon+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under63c17.45$11 inLost-$10.9940849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.