TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Points O/U 26.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,875
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,875 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41b7…f6babacked Yes43c4,492$1,927 inLost-$1,926.9480146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No61c1,523$932 inWon+$591.181,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked No55c1,079$591 inWon+$487.9217151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed No54c1,000$540 inWon+$460.1814346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a10…543cbacked No56c1,000$560 inWon+$4402962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked Yes50c119.99$60 inLost-$603727%10 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-39.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed Yes48c100$48 inLost-$481752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6d…cf4abacked No50c100$50 inWon+$501090%9 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick55cpaid+77.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8dd1…f095backed No58c33.61$20 inWon+$14.043647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b56…6431backed No55c27.34$15 inWon+$12.353066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.