TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Trail Blazers, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$502,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$509,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed Trail Blazers45c90,000$40,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,499.9924650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Wizards52c74,467$38,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,48687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Wizards53c67,024$35,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,501.0943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Wizards55c63,636$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,636.3644352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Trail Blazers48c51,777$24,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,885.731,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Trail Blazers47c48,236$22,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,558.522,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Wizards54c26,151$14,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,029.364841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Trail Blazers47c20,864$9,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80626949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Trail Blazers47c16,417$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,699.9920849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Trail Blazers47c16,000$7,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,524.9246145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Wizards55c15,778$8,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,100.129351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards53c15,049$7,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,072.911,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers47c12,494$5,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,863.894,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers47c12,369$5,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,815.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Wizards51c11,655$5,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,727.2735450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5c…36f0backed Trail Blazers47c10,638$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Trail Blazers47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70025753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Wizards52c7,435$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.036352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…db25backed Trail Blazers48c6,818$3,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,272.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fbf…98bbbacked Trail Blazers48c6,616$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead4…143dbacked Trail Blazers48c6,565$3,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,151.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Wizards54c6,500$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,99019754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf217…f984backed Trail Blazers48c6,467$3,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,104.16425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25aa…403abacked Trail Blazers48c6,428$3,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdd…5f08backed Trail Blazers48c6,420$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…c0e3backed Trail Blazers48c6,396$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.08425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4613…84cbbacked Trail Blazers48c6,285$3,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Wizards55c6,056$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.365945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Wizards55c5,818$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.1838750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4622…8b17backed Trail Blazers48c5,600$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61cb…7198backed Wizards52c5,300$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Trail Blazers47c4,891$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.6917249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wizards54c4,746$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.162,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Wizards53c4,718$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,21876746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers33c4,657$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.028,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Trail Blazers48c4,500$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16587750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Trail Blazers47c4,323$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03224450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Trail Blazers47c4,065$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910.6271547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5faa…c2abbacked Wizards52c4,006$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfc…7d69backed Wizards52c3,946$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Trail Blazers46c3,606$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.8526544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9089…0003backed Wizards52c3,606$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x582c…c466backed Wizards52c3,606$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee5…a49abacked Wizards52c3,525$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Wizards50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers46c3,478$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.881,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd792…6bb9backed Wizards52c3,455$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb315…40f3backed Wizards52c3,322$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594.56944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9d…e062backed Wizards55c3,238$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x173c…ad43backed Wizards52c3,237$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6912…9750backed Wizards52c3,225$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf613…457bbacked Wizards52c3,221$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.084100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+90.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x25ec…e46bbacked Wizards52c3,217$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.16475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Trail Blazers47c3,191$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6190…c70fbacked Wizards52c3,172$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b7…42e8backed Wizards52c3,169$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4daa…67e0backed Wizards52c3,149$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fb…7d27backed Wizards52c3,144$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe806…2562backed Wizards52c3,123$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Trail Blazers26c3,120$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.513562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…89abbacked Wizards52c3,098$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.04650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d5…38b9backed Wizards52c3,044$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fe…60abbacked Wizards52c3,025$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd41…937cbacked Wizards52c3,016$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Trail Blazers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Wizards52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Wizards52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9843348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54f…b245backed Wizards52c2,998$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Trail Blazers47c2,927$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5786…bbb3backed Wizards52c2,850$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8550…5c92backed Wizards51c2,666$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards52c2,618$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.542,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x203d…e00fbacked Trail Blazers47c2,585$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.014533.3%15 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd755…3ad3backed Trail Blazers48c2,550$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ba…d593backed Wizards53c2,550$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e5…3ebcbacked Wizards53c2,450$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b42…525ebacked Wizards52c2,185$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Trail Blazers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…9120backed Wizards52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-30%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba43…388cbacked Trail Blazers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-47.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4487…512fbacked Wizards52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e6…265bbacked Trail Blazers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Trail Blazers16c1,971$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Trail Blazers47c1,885$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.9530351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards52c1,862$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.373,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Trail Blazers47c1,853$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.716650%33 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849a…16f5backed Wizards51c1,834$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.66560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd56d…bd7dbacked Wizards54c1,667$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.678647.7%41 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Wizards55c1,655$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.7547856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x902e…5f41backed Trail Blazers50c1,615$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8009853.1%52 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Wizards55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67541553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9917…6e80backed Trail Blazers48c1,469$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.1260%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xe381…b53bbacked Trail Blazers48c1,432$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.3650%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Trail Blazers19c1,395$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.6721642.1%91 W · 125 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Wizards54c1,389$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.1265339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f9f…64f7backed Trail Blazers48c1,385$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3a…8ebbbacked Trail Blazers48c1,336$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e9…d44dbacked Trail Blazers47c1,300$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c49…4678backed Trail Blazers48c1,296$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e9…fc94backed Trail Blazers48c1,293$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.64520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.