TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,840,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,830,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,840,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Yes78c635,344$493,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,104.022759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No22c393,436$87,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,921.473429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed Yes79c189,858$149,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,870.236453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No22c170,221$37,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,150.744042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No8c115,345$9,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,773.743,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No21c108,089$22,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,698.623132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No23c100,000$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,5003534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes77c99,999$77,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,999.872850%14 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes78c78,141$60,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,221.9833945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No22c67,555$15,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,000.721,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No22c55,595$12,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,168.151,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed No22c52,400$11,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,528580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No20c46,967$9,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,297.823745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No22c45,872$9,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,945.3469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Yes78c30,000$23,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6006251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…fdc0backed No0c29,464$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.823627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No23c26,821$6,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,160.2276234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e0…e546backed No22c24,437$5,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,376.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No21c17,543$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,684.033743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Yes78c16,354$12,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,601.45653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…59febacked No22c15,100$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,291650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed No22c15,084$3,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,318.4810154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No20c15,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed No21c13,496$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.163548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No24c13,276$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2024740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No22c13,000$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.994228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No22c10,819$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.1817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No1c9,945$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.292213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No21c9,643$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.342,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No22c9,250$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.074854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed Yes78c8,544$6,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.592259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No22c8,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.979831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf74…1a7abacked No23c6,794$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed No24c6,788$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No23c6,549$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.2744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No22c5,908$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.9556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No22c5,521$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.419951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes79c5,247$4,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.4275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No23c5,199$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.858037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No22c4,418$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9722218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed No1c4,357$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed No21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8402240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No22c4,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.972429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No21c3,912$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.311354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0401…2f0ebacked No22c3,100$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6605923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…625dbacked No3c3,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb5…7349backed Yes78c2,560$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No4c2,522$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6222332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed No20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa52e…453fbacked No23c2,479$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.0740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No21c2,189$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.999459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07eb…95a8backed No21c2,096$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No22c2,040$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.315952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No22c2,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.3735856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes79c2,000$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.0128241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9386…fdfebacked Yes80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4004100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4406126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No22c1,941$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.0755058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb8…505cbacked No24c1,901$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No22c1,820$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.42035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked No22c1,777$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.941947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes77c1,732$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.3610361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked No21c1,661$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.813141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed No23c1,633$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f18…2d79backed Yes77c1,558$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb99d…1e6abacked No22c1,549$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No22c1,545$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked No23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34527726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc87…e026backed Yes78c1,300$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No20c1,211$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed No21c1,200$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked No23c1,065$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2456533.8%22 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed Yes76c1,024$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.72378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No22c999.92$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.986053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed No21c936.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.473129%9 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed No10c920$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.110728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes78c897.44$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.442646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x235e…da5abacked Yes76c780.24$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba6f…fd5bbacked Yes76c772$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.28955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes80c746.89$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3216850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3302…5397backed Yes78c744.81$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6e…2a01backed No24c708.33$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Yes76c700$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fba…1404backed Yes78c700$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes77c700$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16148146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed No22c681.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No22c681.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No3c678.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.623842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No5c649.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4813139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No7c648$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8433737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Yes78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0313066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb6…8af4backed No24c632.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+201%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x239b…bd0bbacked No23c579.89$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eae…7cecbacked Yes77c517.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.82560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Yes77c516.38$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.773360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.