Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaadcae453a9849b1afba22e1851ecf8034d2527ca78fd49bcc51b9425165393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 5,481$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.15 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 3c | 3,070$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…f645backed Yes | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,949$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,861$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.53 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 8c | 1,702$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,572$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,358$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 2c | 1,061$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,046$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 8c | 1,032$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 10c | 981.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Yes | 10c | 976$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa863…3d7bbacked Yes | 10c | 970.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…abc5backed Yes | 10c | 940$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 10c | 905.05$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 9c | 734.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb01…a7fcbacked Yes | 3c | 667.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 581.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 9c | 540$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76e8…6001backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…8908backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 10c | 447$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…163bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 6c | 266.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a3…3ecabacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 10c | 248$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 6c | 247.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…a1f2backed Yes | 11c | 240.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 10c | 210.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b1…246dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…1856backed Yes | 10c | 163.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 10c | 149.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 8c | 147.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 10c | 136.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea99…f13ebacked Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…4374backed Yes | 11c | 110.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 10c | 106.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf250…de38backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…127cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…d6edbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…5323backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08?this page
- Will FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.