Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d9dcc8991c9b7858c1ddbea1ca96027f6b3136ab292ffb97bfa5cace706ac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,526$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,919$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed Yes | 1c | 1,245$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 13c | 843.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…3f01backed Yes | 13c | 446.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…8b9abacked Yes | 14c | 357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…18f3backed Yes | 9c | 345.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…6dd0backed Yes | 17c | 301.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 9c | 271.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…321bbacked Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 13c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5860…a02dbacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 13c | 81.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…79e1backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08?Yes won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.