TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$578,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$612,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $578,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 515 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1602…3674backed Pelicans24c118,180$28,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,537.692466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Pelicans27c37,645$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers75c30,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Pelicans24c20,001$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.295815.5%9 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Trail Blazers75c18,954$14,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,681.7169852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Trail Blazers75c16,364$12,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,118.0536148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Trail Blazers75c15,275$11,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.052,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e7…5f44backed Trail Blazers75c14,340$10,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.4757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick74cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Trail Blazers76c13,158$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.8934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Pelicans1c12,720$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6320034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Pelicans25c11,815$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.419249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c3…cd79backed Trail Blazers18c11,700$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,594333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans1c10,155$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.831,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers77c9,486$7,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.884,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab8…e66abacked Pelicans26c8,770$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9047…82a3backed Trail Blazers74c8,422$6,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Trail Blazers73c7,361$5,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.9144459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec1…50cdbacked Pelicans30c6,673$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Trail Blazers75c6,601$4,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.362268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9792…0812backed Trail Blazers75c6,601$4,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.35683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5aa…a24bbacked Trail Blazers75c6,601$4,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c8…f18dbacked Trail Blazers75c6,563$4,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7c…832dbacked Pelicans26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans0c5,999$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.098820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Pelicans37c5,915$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.5314243%61 W · 81 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers78c5,841$4,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.278,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df4…8ca6backed Pelicans26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…e9ebbacked Pelicans26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pelicans20c4,699$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.8485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers75c4,657$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.715,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce0…e210backed Pelicans26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…fbbcbacked Trail Blazers75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers73c3,895$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef6…6c23backed Pelicans26c3,851$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Pelicans0c3,505$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.657502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc7…adffbacked Trail Blazers75c3,500$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+48.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd5…13a0backed Pelicans25c3,300$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x400f…e712backed Pelicans31c3,078$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Trail Blazers74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b67…a36ebacked Pelicans26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.31per pick41cpaid+81.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Trail Blazers73c2,737$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.3148448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Pelicans25c2,735$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.7755346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…38cebacked Trail Blazers75c2,673$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.171040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pelicans26c2,652$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.642,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Trail Blazers73c2,500$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.7278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…eeb9backed Pelicans25c2,500$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6251145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cf…55d3backed Pelicans29c2,259$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6551323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Pelicans25c2,231$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.3761835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2633…8816backed Pelicans34c2,225$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Pelicans16c2,203$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.528846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans25c2,136$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.582,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans25c2,136$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.573,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Pelicans2c2,078$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9434425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Trail Blazers75c2,051$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.9426038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x022b…b28cbacked Pelicans26c2,036$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.3616730.5%51 W · 116 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70a6…b11bbacked Trail Blazers75c2,020$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Pelicans26c2,000$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.291,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Pelicans26c1,923$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012452.4%65 W · 59 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7060…37a2backed Pelicans26c1,922$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e7a…ad4cbacked Trail Blazers75c1,900$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4751040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Pelicans25c1,850$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0524330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6865…b323backed Trail Blazers74c1,800$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e7…c5c9backed Trail Blazers74c1,800$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Trail Blazers76c1,791$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.451,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d5…1210backed Trail Blazers74c1,700$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7614…c079backed Pelicans24c1,652$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.99166.3%1 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.24per pick30cpaid-81.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Trail Blazers75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4007261.1%44 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dae…b6a5backed Trail Blazers75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Pelicans25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.0175347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Pelicans36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54047542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685f…c82fbacked Trail Blazers74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3903100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+193.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc491…61f7backed Trail Blazers74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Pelicans4c1,458$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.658783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Pelicans10c1,443$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4148739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Pelicans26c1,400$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36456348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9997…97b5backed Trail Blazers74c1,400$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72c…a633backed Trail Blazers75c1,335$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.759953.5%53 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Trail Blazers76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7916251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f86…4b75backed Trail Blazers74c1,300$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…7713backed Trail Blazers74c1,300$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb6…3804backed Trail Blazers74c1,300$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96c…d5bfbacked Trail Blazers75c1,244$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…dd71backed Trail Blazers76c1,200$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2881172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x830b…acc2backed Trail Blazers74c1,200$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed Pelicans23c1,200$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.632740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Trail Blazers73c1,177$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.6995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc557…e530backed Pelicans26c1,124$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.346327%17 W · 46 L-7.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b92…64efbacked Trail Blazers75c1,100$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2751060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Pelicans29c1,070$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.5333146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa4…5d6fbacked Trail Blazers75c1,067$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea54…8dadbacked Trail Blazers75c1,022$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.551060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f47…7c9bbacked Trail Blazers75c1,020$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb161…590ebacked Pelicans26c1,019$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Pelicans17c1,004$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.65911.9%7 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Trail Blazers73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27039958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Trail Blazers75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Pelicans26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606055%33 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Trail Blazers75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pelicans19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Pelicans10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.