NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ef003ea01bbdbf08ef45f6d6455218203a7730d8231ac96638e7baa20dc079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 42,022$22,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,750.34 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Pelicans | 47c | 40,000$18,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,800 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Pelicans | 46c | 8,872$4,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.12 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 45c | 3,330$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 46c | 2,529$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.8 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 1,071$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans | 45c | 909.09$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.09 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 822.22$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.22 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans | 47c | 725.85$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.93 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 47c | 669.5$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.15 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 47c | 536.96$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…0a4ebacked Pelicans | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8202…d82fbacked Trail Blazers | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 299.56$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans | 46c | 265.24$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb332…c5aabacked Pelicans | 47c | 192$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 185.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…daa2backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8223backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 183$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aa1abacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…f23dbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 96.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 45c | 86.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pelicans | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 71.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 53.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f6…a514backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 28.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Pelicans | 47c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Trail Blazers vs. PelicansTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.