NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x458b17300e6d1cfdc06edf9427f8d9adac5f51c5be08686fdbd37b9b7bbca2d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 49c | 9,568$4,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.3 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 7,519$3,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,841.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 1,083$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.16 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 940.83$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.01 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 448.51$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Under | 48c | 419.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 407$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Over | 52c | 362.3$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 104.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Trail Blazers vs. PelicansTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.