NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e186510c7d6a7ed6edb75fb7fa42ae480e116ca5b95869e3cf06f60a853dc0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Trail Blazers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 46,013$22,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,086.24 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Pelicans | 52c | 40,000$20,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,200 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans | 52c | 4,053$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pelicans | 52c | 1,503$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.21 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,010$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans | 52c | 913.67$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.56 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 791.54$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.29 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 51c | 729.9$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 632.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.62 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 510$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Pelicans | 51c | 510$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Pelicans | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…f97ebacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 114.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Pelicans | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a86…7ed7backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 47.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. PelicansTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.