Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c0812c0ec76d2f241e5f28c4e64ee721058de5331e33fd173d36bb6540433b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7294…4faebacked No | 27c | 20,220$5,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,459.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 10,079$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…8298backed Yes | 73c | 7,740$5,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…2fc5backed Yes | 73c | 6,480$4,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…2993backed Yes | 73c | 6,000$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 62c | 2,616$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.4 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,226$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.16 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed Yes | 74c | 2,119$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 38c | 1,556$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.83 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 40c | 1,274$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.69 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 63c | 1,152$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.96 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…f9f7backed No | 51c | 1,072$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 35c | 986.95$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.93 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 29c | 913.19$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 61c | 809.32$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.1 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 42c | 599.99$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 75c | 530.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 47c | 510$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 40c | 498.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.9 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 37c | 449.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed No | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 48c | 412.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.78 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 54c | 406.38$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 358.04$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.67 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 71c | 354.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 54c | 347.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 63c | 317.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 58c | 314.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 65c | 308.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 30c | 303.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 53c | 299.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 70c | 275.28$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 44c | 255.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 233.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 33c | 231.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 67c | 213.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 59c | 211.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 44c | 210$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 48c | 159.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…cb25backed No | 43c | 147.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 49c | 145.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 46c | 130.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2a…9863backed Yes | 41c | 121.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 10c | 112.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9a…7991backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…f34fbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…052abacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…95ecbacked No | 58c | 95.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed Yes | 58c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 36c | 90.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 68c | 75.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed No | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d1…5eb2backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4c…44e2backed Yes | 61c | 62.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 44c | 57.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.8wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…7867backed No | 36c | 55.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc031…2c43backed No | 42c | 52.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 29c | 50.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 26c | 50.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 42c | 49.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…ac87backed Yes | 50c | 40.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…0ad3backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 56c | 38.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed No | 40c | 36.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…e66bbacked Yes | 69c | 34.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 54c | 31.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed Yes | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 35c | 29.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…e697backed No | 59c | 26.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…9f6abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.