Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20388208df7b2fb4b2d2eb4e8a825ccff698d76503bf12b7c5fc310407b19608

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $606,618
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $457,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $606,618 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	55,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6098…5cbabacked Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	38,978$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b41…2814backed Yes	0c	38,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	4c	17,537$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.67	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	16,447$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.19	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	0c	16,257$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.6	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	3c	15,608$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5c…4526backed Yes	1c	11,675$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6d22backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	9,698$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.14	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	8,805$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.71	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	6,537$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.11	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…9554backed Yes	2c	6,078$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.22	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	4,000$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.72	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,519$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.11	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed Yes	1c	2,817$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	6c	2,311$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	6c	2,233$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.87	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	2,153$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe080…2015backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	1,720$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.89	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	4c	1,300$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.73	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	6c	1,217$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.85	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	6c	1,170$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.27	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	5c	1,153$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.57	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	1,083$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	6c	1,026$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.69	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes	4c	1,007$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.41	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	4c	1,002$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.54	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	6c	999.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd046…3432backed Yes	2c	912.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes	3c	873.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5713…e818backed Yes	5c	829.36$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes	3c	697.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde95…e0aebacked Yes	3c	625$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1855…32bcbacked Yes	6c	622.81$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf07…4b64backed Yes	5c	615.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes	3c	527.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…98b7backed Yes	8c	504.67$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…a807backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-64%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088d…fc77backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes	9c	462.65$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	90	12.2%11 W · 79 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	4c	461$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc971…d456backed Yes	5c	442.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9be1…0ad2backed Yes	2c	437.15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…20f7backed Yes	8c	420.69$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	5c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	6c	390.63$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	8c	378.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	361.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	5c	350$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7811…3ab4backed Yes	4c	321.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2b…85f7backed Yes	5c	312.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24c…eaf0backed Yes	7c	302.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da3…1336backed Yes	7c	298.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1756…74a4backed Yes	7c	291.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d26…a28bbacked Yes	10c	280.01$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	7c	276.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd538…04aabacked Yes	5c	260$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8496…00b7backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x962a…f130backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	5c	220.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1cad…888fbacked Yes	6c	189.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…5f1dbacked Yes	6c	171.9$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4839…6d90backed Yes	6c	170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event