TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,363,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$702,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,363,480 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c153,854$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.738206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes0c71,800$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.96922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+76%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c51,747$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.411,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c47,196$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.477966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes3c40,731$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.1322327.8%62 W · 161 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes1c39,128$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8315520%31 W · 124 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c38,116$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.694816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes1c29,360$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.742516%4 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0f…2052backed Yes0c25,140$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda67…1739backed Yes0c23,889$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.23323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c21,313$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.781,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes0c20,620$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8656817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes1c15,959$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5d6…6f47backed Yes3c15,005$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes1c14,371$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.872218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+436.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c13,094$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.671,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes4c12,569$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.97527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes1c11,105$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c10,843$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.682,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes1c9,041$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes1c9,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8817612.5%22 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c8,884$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.185045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec4e…aa07backed Yes1c8,305$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.431414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22f…6d67backed Yes3c8,228$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes0c8,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3945511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes2c7,800$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.67828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8daa…89d6backed Yes3c7,571$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5b…a593backed Yes1c7,485$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c7,093$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes2c6,580$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210513.3%14 W · 91 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bc…483cbacked Yes3c6,139$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes2c5,572$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.353267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes3c5,437$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012616.7%21 W · 105 L-0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes1c5,348$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.893844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes0c5,167$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91347.5%10 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes1c5,042$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.94705.7%4 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c5,015$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.012401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd81…8626backed Yes1c4,739$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+173.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes1c4,734$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5128534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Yes1c4,483$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+75.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes1c4,360$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes1c4,175$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.351438.4%12 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b9…0354backed Yes2c4,106$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.86812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…c4d3backed Yes1c3,933$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes2c3,881$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85588.6%5 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes1c3,700$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.953817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked Yes0c3,540$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+101.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes0c3,534$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes3c3,403$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.812227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes1c3,350$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.885612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c3,321$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5199619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes6c3,300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4331217.3%54 W · 258 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7db…40f4backed Yes3c3,250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes2c3,138$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8318618.3%34 W · 152 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes2c2,750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c48…056fbacked Yes4c2,698$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+175.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes3c2,618$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6812712.6%16 W · 111 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa789…0a6ebacked Yes2c2,580$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeeb…645fbacked Yes1c2,571$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes1c2,551$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5117723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6994…9631backed Yes2c2,479$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid+10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes2c2,477$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+90%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes2c2,413$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.24329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c77…05f5backed Yes2c2,325$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.351216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b04…c387backed Yes1c2,298$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251520%3 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+121.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8423…b93dbacked Yes1c2,253$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.93616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3113…9943backed Yes2c2,234$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c2,182$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.972,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a5…ded5backed Yes1c2,160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3084616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1618412%22 W · 162 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes1c2,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes1c1,897$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12205%1 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48f5…e40dbacked Yes1c1,806$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+103%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes4c1,778$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805113.7%7 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes2c1,767$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes3c1,743$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick24cpaid+10.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes1c1,668$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.133511.4%4 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x240d…bfd2backed Yes1c1,656$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.65630.4%17 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked Yes2c1,652$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.282958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes1c1,604$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2465311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2608…5ca8backed Yes2c1,516$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d26…3286backed Yes2c1,508$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes2c1,415$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.834798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27c6…e143backed Yes3c1,348$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.263915.4%6 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes1c1,346$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.819819.7%39 W · 159 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09f0…5991backed Yes1c1,200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1134427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes1c1,060$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7458011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaada…75fbbacked Yes1c1,035$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+419.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d9…9085backed Yes2c1,031$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes2c1,014$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206521.5%14 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a47…88f2backed Yes2c1,009$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+87.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes1c977$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0410811.1%12 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+70.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes1c922.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6462539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf647…632bbacked Yes1c910$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes2c852.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.324223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes3c847.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4241017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes1c828.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4220717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.