TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Eagles vs. Cowboys

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cowboysof Eagles, Cowboys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,683,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,404,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,683,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 757 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2643…39aebacked Cowboys28c659,491$186,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472,972.242065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Cowboys42c637,212$267,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369,582.912050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Eagles61c600,671$364,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364,836.6530043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Cowboys18c500,040$92,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408,035.96248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Cowboys41c409,393$165,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243,538.9317041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Eagles59c300,000$177,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,00010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Eagles64c130,000$82,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,80012144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x165d…79c6backed Eagles0c97,318$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.611353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Eagles58c85,801$49,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,853.675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ba…eba1backed Cowboys42c73,300$30,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,729.85450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Eagles71c68,627$48,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,539.873651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2433…10acbacked Eagles0c65,453$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.983834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf071…cbcbbacked Eagles0c53,844$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.121118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cowboys37c50,610$18,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,907.6620755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Eagles59c50,000$29,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,499.8331240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0344…a65ebacked Eagles60c43,500$25,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,965540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Eagles60c41,667$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0003056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Eagles60c35,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,00013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Eagles77c33,766$26,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,018.879359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa73e…bc27backed Eagles60c30,627$18,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,376.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Eagles59c27,292$16,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,031.4747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Cowboys41c25,191$10,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,862.524852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Eagles58c25,000$14,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,5007657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Cowboys40c24,064$9,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,438.395453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Eagles66c23,842$15,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,747.0112138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e11…82a9backed Cowboys60c20,499$12,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,103.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Cowboys47c18,033$8,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,535.3626547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Eagles60c17,500$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,50011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Eagles74c16,735$12,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,367.1368446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aeb…be79backed Cowboys39c16,562$6,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,106.671764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Eagles72c15,971$11,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,548.5823244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Eagles63c14,145$8,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,914.6186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Eagles60c13,478$8,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,062.419949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cowboys38c13,477$5,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,345.0747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Eagles63c13,183$8,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,283.6353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9e…eddcbacked Cowboys17c12,963$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,809.191145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+69.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Cowboys40c12,350$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,41027454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Eagles74c11,597$8,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,631.4731543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Eagles61c11,557$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0007626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cowboys41c11,380$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,714.212944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Eagles58c11,000$6,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3803351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Eagles46c10,981$5,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,001.7219551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9105…97f2backed Eagles60c10,505$6,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3031346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Eagles68c10,490$7,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,101.5227644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Cowboys41c10,472$4,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,178.4822450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Cowboys30c10,400$3,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,257.995940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Eagles78c10,376$8,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,116.975719.3%11 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x801a…a4bbbacked Eagles60c10,263$6,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,157.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49cc…1975backed Cowboys40c10,247$4,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,148.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Cowboys39c10,000$3,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,104.548946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Eagles59c9,815$5,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,742.0612744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cowboys40c9,500$3,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,654.9535848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Eagles62c9,208$5,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,665.6431056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Cowboys41c8,537$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,036.5918650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Eagles59c8,065$4,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,787.3423850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Eagles59c7,595$4,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4811,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb511…dedfbacked Eagles50c7,174$3,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.522347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5d…f75dbacked Cowboys22c6,845$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,337.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Eagles64c6,707$4,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,266.828151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Cowboys15c6,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.675957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Eagles64c6,515$4,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.7411643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cowboys31c6,375$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.1950242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Eagles60c6,351$3,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,786.2414951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Eagles59c6,000$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,54051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Cowboys29c5,818$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,126.96759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Eagles61c5,477$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36016344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked Eagles72c5,276$3,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,813.121752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb39d…b695backed Eagles3c5,168$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.742035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe3…f118backed Cowboys20c5,020$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,019.9650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+58.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Eagles60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Eagles58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9001323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-56.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Eagles58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9008845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Cowboys30c4,925$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,447.723423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Eagles41c4,756$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.1324053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cowboys24c4,537$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,446.4120039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Cowboys37c4,309$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.985549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…b18cbacked Eagles62c4,213$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,626.5616645.8%76 W · 90 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Eagles76c4,165$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,147.9311255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Cowboys35c4,125$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,681.2513450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Eagles59c4,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Cowboys41c3,941$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.5325744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Eagles15c3,924$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.397526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ac…392cbacked Cowboys29c3,875$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.026743.3%29 W · 38 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+39.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cowboys21c3,873$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,069.7420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Cowboys26c3,677$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.831854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Cowboys27c3,670$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,684.668532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ba…7185backed Cowboys16c3,576$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,002.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+107.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c86…c4f6backed Eagles75c3,570$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Cowboys18c3,523$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.1820851%106 W · 102 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Cowboys26c3,504$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.2911027.3%30 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Cowboys24c3,369$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,547.9412039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Cowboys40c3,333$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.84847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Cowboys61c3,303$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.55246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Cowboys40c3,148$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.1510648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea3…d599backed Eagles76c3,031$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,290.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Eagles64c3,010$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.3430446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Cowboys62c3,000$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Cowboys20c3,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.995139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6141…ded2backed Eagles70c2,995$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.891764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7546…3a91backed Cowboys45c2,886$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.645230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.